Premier League 25 9 21
The weekend kicks off with three of the four most likely league winners all playing at 12.30pm on Saturday.
The ‘big’ game is Chelsea v Man City. This is obviously far t oo early to decide the title but the three points from this game could prove decisive at the end of the season. The most likely score is 1-1. We favour City by just 2% as winners at 38.4% highlighting how close this is. Bookmakers have just 0.1% between the teams.
The ‘other’ game is Man Utd v Villa. Villa could be a problem for United in this game after winning 3-0 against Everton last weekend. We have Utd winning 1-0 as the most likely score. A Utd win is 57.5% likely which still somewhat reflects Villa’s potential for an upset here. Bookmakers disagree having Utd on just under 69% to win.
Model-wise the other game of interest is Brentford v Liverpool and includes the only other likely title winners. We actually have a 1-1 draw as the most likely score (exact score as 11.6% likely). Brentford have started well and home advantage is built into our model. That said we still favour Liverpool to win at 48.7% with bookmakers much more confident at 64%. I think Liverpool will win it but Brentford will be tough opposition.