The is the first week for a while, in the Championship, that we’ve had a team on two expected goals. In the table below you can see West Brom hit that milestone this week at home to Bristol City.
West Brom have actually lost two of their last three games but both our model and bookmakers Mean Odds (in table above) seem pretty confident of a West Brom win against Bristol City (64.2% our model; 65.2% bookmakers Mean Odds). According to our model there is an equal 11.5% chance of a 1-0 or of a 2-0 win as the most likely exact score).
Another game where there is a high likelihood of a particular outcome is, Bournemouth winning against Huddersfield. This is a bit less likely than West Brom winning but still at 60% according to our model. Bournemouth have maintained an unbeaten record so far and although Huddersfield are 6th in the league bookmakers have Bournemouth as likely winners as well at 57.2%.
Our model predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely score in the Birmingham v Swansea game, this is the game with the biggest difference in likely winner when comparing our model to bookmakers. We favour Swansea at 41% but bookmakers odds have Birmingham on 39.6%.