English Championship – last weekend of October

 

The English Championship returns tonight with a game that when I was a child was a regular fixture in the old Division One and early Premier League. QPR v Nottingham Forest kicks off at 7.45 on Friday night and we think QPR are favourites, at just over 50%.

A 1-1 draw is the most likely score however as both teams have an expected goals of over 1.

Bookmakers are more cautious about QPR having them at 45% to win.

The rest of the Championship fixtures take place tomorrow, there is a big lunchtime game between two of last season’s Premier League teams, Fulham and West Brom.

It’s big not just because they were both in the Premier League last season but because they are also second and third in the league this season. This also is most likely to be a 1-1 draw but favours Fulham at 47%, with boomakers more or less agreeing at 45.4%.

This round of matches finishes with a Saturday night kick off between Reading and Bournemouth. Reading’s form has been patchy this season, although still perhaps better than some fans had hoped for at the start of the season when they were financially restricted in terms of buying players.

Bournemouth on the other hand are top of the league, are unbeaten and have won their last four matches. Perhaps surprisingly, our model gives Reading a reasonable chance (29%) of a win and Bournemouth less than 50% (44%), but bookmakers are not wildly different (Reading – 20.3% and B’mouth at 53.5%) in terms of their mean odds.

A 1-1 draw is the most likely result with Bournemouth, as said before, favoured.