English Championship Midweek 2 November 2021

 

As we start November, the Championship midweek games continue tonight and tomorrow.

We have a bottom of the table clash with Barnsley v Derby County. Barnsley were one of the surprise teams last season, supposedly using data to maximise performance from players and it also was supposed to matter less whom the manager was, as part of their overall strategy.

Derby will fancy their chances, however, as Barnsley have just sacked the latest manager, not least because Barnsley last got a point 7 games ago. Our model says Derby’s chances aren’t that great though (27.5%, compared to bookmakers mean odds having them at 21.5%). The most likely score is a 1-1 draw at 12.1% likely, with a 1-0 Barnsley win at 11.5, so home advantage and a different manager could be key.

Elsewhere in the league it would be hard to go against Bournemouth winning against Preston (nearly 60% chance of a Bournemouth win).

West Brom also look pretty likely to win against a Hull City side that are in the relegation places, they have a 64% chance of a win (the highest odds from our model), with a 1-0 exact score 12.5% likely and a 2-0 home win also at 12.2%. Bookmakers pretty much agree with us within 1-3% on these two matches.

Millwall probably fancy their changes at home to Reading who have lost 3 games in a row and our model predicts misery for Reading being not far from 50% likely (48.2) with bookmakers again within around 3% of those odds.

One game that might be quite close is Blackburn v Fulham, Ben Brereton-Diaz caught the eye in the Summer at the Copa America for Chile and is currently Blackburn top scorer with 10 goals in 11 games, against a Fulham side that are currently outscoring everyone in the Championship. Fulham have 10 more goals than the next-highest scorers, Bournemouth. Fulham’s higher scoring is reflected in their higher expected goals 1.66 to 1.27 and although bookmakers mean odds are very similar to our most likely winner, a 1-1 draw is also the most likely score here.