English Championship 23/11/21-24/11/21

 

Fulham v Derby County

Is there any chance for Derby against high-scoring, table-topping Fulham?

Well yes, actually but probably less than 10%, as we give them an 8.8% chance of an away win, with bookmakers mean odds coming in at 9.2%. Fulham are on an expected goals of 2.55 compared to Derby’s 0.75.

One thing you can say though, is that if it wasn’t for their points deductions they would certainly not be bottom of the league. In fact you have to go all the way up the table to 9th placed Millwall to find a similarly mean defence.

Derby haven’t exactly been scoring much (16 in 18 games) but have only let in 18. They beat Bournemouth at the weekend and our model gave them just over a 20% chance of doing that so they may just beat today’s odds too.

Most likely score: 2-0

Millwall v Bournemouth

After Derby beat Bournemouth at the weekend, Millwall must also fancy their chances. Trouble is, despite losing to Derby, Bournemouth have the best defence in the league currently. Unlike Derby, Millwall are in with a shout, according to our model – giving them over 30% change of a win (compared to 27.5 with bookmakers mean odds).

Most likely score: 1-1

Elsewhere, our model matches to within a few percentage point of bookmakers mean odds, except for Blackpool v West Brom. The outcome isn’t exactly different as such, both our model and bookmakers favour West Brom, it is the extent of the difference in the odds.

There is a 10% increase in the likelihood of West Brom winning with bookmakers mean odds, but Blackpool also drop by 10% as likely winners. This could be due to our model including home advantage, it may also be that their expected goals are both very similar (just 0.05% difference).