English Championship 3/12/21

Most of this weekend’s games look pretty close, with all but two games coming out with a 1-1 draw as the most likely score from our model.

This is in part because the two top teams are playing each other rather than someone much lower down the league.

Fulham v Bournemouth

Which leads me to this. These two teams are already 7 to 8 points clear of the rest of the league and are in the automatic promotion slots, although a slip up from either would obviously threaten that slightly.

Looking at the history of the matchups between the teams, they curiously take place in three eras, there are games, according to 11 v 11, in the 20’s and 30’s, then nothing until the 60’s/70’s and then another gap until the early 90’s.

Bournemouth have slightly the better of it, having won 13 games to Fulham’s 11.

In recent weeks, both teams have drawn twice against lower placed opposition so very recent form is perhaps difficult to give pointers as to what will happen tonight. Our model predicts a draw but actually favours Fulham by the second highest percentage for all teams we favour (52.5%). Fulham also have the highest expected goals as you’d expect.

Most likely score according to our model: 1-1 (11.1% is the percentage likelihood for an exact 1-1 draw – see table below for Score Picks and Draws).

Reading v Hull City 

Towards the other end of the table this is quite an intriguing game, Reading won their last game (with Andy Carroll, scoring) and Hull have managed to win their last 4, Reading are scoring but their defence is the third worst in the league.

Our model favours Reading at 46% with Bookmakers Mean Odds just 5% less, and favouring Hull by 5% more than our model, so it should be close.

Most likely score according to our model: 1-1 (this exact score is 12.% likely).