Premier League Mid-week 14-16 December 2021

Scorecasts were unavailable last weekend for technical reasons but we are back today for the midweek games.

Brentford v Man Utd is off after a Covid-19 Outbreak.

Of tonight’s games, Norwich v Aston Villa (1-1 draw most likely  at 12.8% as most likely score) looks closer but Man City v Leeds is also interesting for the neutral (2-0 win for City predicted but our model gives City a 15% less likely chance of winning than bookmakers Mean Odds).

Leeds actually beat Man City in April so there is a slim chance (11.9% our model, 4.8%(!) with bookmakers Mean Odds) they could repeat that but their form has been patchy whilst Man City last lost a league game on 30 October against Palace and have won every game since.

On Wednesday, Arsenal v West Ham looks good, with West Ham flying higher than pretty much anyone expected and Arsenal occasionally looking good and sometimes not (although apparently arguing with their now ex-captain so how that will affect the game, I don’t know).

Our model is very close to bookmakers Mean Odds in terms of likely winners, with just over 1% between the likely odds of an Arsenal win and just 0.5% for a West Ham win. A 1-1 draw seems a fair outcome though. 

On Thursday whilst Chelsea and Liverpool are playing, both should win against Everton and Newcastle (both are predicted as 2-0 home wins in our model) – Leicester v Tottenham actually looks closer and perhaps more interesting, and although a 1-1 is most likely, our model favours Leicester at 48% with bookmakers just a bit less at 45.6%.