Premier League New Year’s Day 2022

Arsenal v Man City

The Premier League new year kicks off at 12.30pm today with Arsenal v Man City.

Looking back at past fixtures and it turns out Arsenal haven’t won in the league against City, since 2015. That said, if football history is your thing, according to 11v11 Arsenal are actually only two wins short of a century of victories over Man City, City winning only 61 times.

With Arsenal in good form, this game should be a bit closer than it was during the 5-0 destruction they suffered against City at the start of the season. City too are in strong form. Our model predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely score, with both teams on at least 1 for expected goals. There is however, a big difference in the confidence levels of our model (41.8% likely City win) and bookmakers mean odds (in table below, on the right), which give Man City at least a 60% chance of winning.

Chelsea v Liverpool

The other ‘big’ game is Chelsea v Liverpool which although also has a 1-1 draw as likely, our model slightly favours home team Chelsea at 42.2% with bookmakers mean odds favouring the opposite, in Liverpool at 38.3%. This looks like it will be closer than the Arsenal v Man City game.