Spurs have been patchy since ‘the special one’ took charge, and the rest of their season is unlikely to be helped by a long-term injury to their premium goalscorer. This…Read More >

The transfer window is open but has so far been quiet. One side in dire need of reinforcements are Aston Villa. This weekend they face a tough visit by Man…Read More >

Arsenal are thoroughly mid-table at best this season, and Man Utd may be playing well, but they will be fortunate to finish in their current position of 5th, given that…Read More >

Halfway through the season and the chasers have already conceded defeat in the title contest. After dismantling Leicester on Boxing Day, Liverpool have surely won the Premier League already. Can…Read More >

The Premier League returns to Amazon Prime on the 26-27th December. Last time was fun! Right?!? Perhaps Sky’s hegemony over the league will soon be over. The standout fixture is…Read More >

Watford and Norwich are sure to spend Christmas in the relegation zone. But Southampton have a chance to escape this weekend at Aston Villa’s expense. The two sides face off…Read More >

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 17 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds. Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects…Read More >

The forecasts of this weekend’s fixtures throw up some curious comparisons between the Model and those implied by the average of online bookmaker odds. These potentially suggest behavioural biases in…Read More >

There is a midweek round of Premier League fixtures this week, Tuesday to Thursday (bizarrely). Most notable perhaps is the Wednesday evening Merseyside Derby at Anfield. Some bookmakers are now…Read More >

As always, the Scorecasting Model provides some notable differences in forecasts when compared against those suggested by bookmaker odds. In some cases, the win %s almost match perfectly, such as…Read More >