Premier League forecast performance, 18/19

As the simplest metric of forecast performance, the table below gives the number of correct scorelines and results according to the model’s most likely scoreline predictions through the 2018/19 season.

“Lawro” points follow the scoring system from BBC’s Mark Lawrenson weekly predictions: 40 points for a correct scoreline; 10 points for a correct result.

We also compare the model’s cumulative performance against Mark Lawrenson throughout the season.

Scorelines Results “Lawro pts”
Model Lawro
Total 38/380 210/380 3240 3340
38: 12 May 1/10 5/10 80 70
37: 3-6 May 1/10 7/10 100 90
36: 26-28 April 1/10 3/10 60 60
35: 19-21 April 1/10 4/10 70 60
34: 12-15 April 0/10 6/10 60 130
33: 4 April 1/10 6/10 90 100
32: 30 Mar-1 Apr 1/10 7/10 100 170
31: 16-17 Mar 0/10 4/10 40 80
30: 9-10 Mar 0/10 6/10 60 30
29: 2-3 Mar 1/10 7/10 100 100
28: 26-27 Feb 0/10 8/10 80 60
27: 6-24 Feb 2/10 6/10 120 160
26: 9-11 Feb 2/10 6/10 120 140
Rounds 1/25 27/250 135/250 2160 2070

[Note: Up to 17th August this evaluation was based on the most likely (unconditional) score forecast. From 17th August, as we refine our forecasts, it is based on the most likely result and subsequent (conditional) score forecast]