Evaluation

It’s one thing to make forecasts; anyone can do that. But we’re keen on making our forecasts better, and we’re happy to admit they are far from perfect. We’re economists after all, so we’re used to forecast failures.

In this part of our site we’ll add information relating to our ongoing evaluation of the forecasts we’ve made. That is, once games have taken place, we’ll look at just how far out we actually were in our forecasts.

Forecast performance (2019/20):

[For the current season, evaluation of the previous round’s forecasts in each competition will be included at the end of the post for the forthcoming round of fixtures.]

Forecast performance (2018/19:
Premier League — [End of season summary]
EFL Championship
EFL League One
EFL League Two
Women’s Super League
Women’s Championship
International

[Note: Up to 17th August 2018 this evaluation was based on the most likely (unconditional) score forecast. From 17th August 2018, as we refine our forecasts, it is based on the most likely result and subsequent (conditional) score forecast]