Scorecasting Economists

One League One Match

There’s a solitary match in League One tonight: Shrewsbury travel to Doncaster. It looks fairly tight match in prospect. Cue a big win for Doncaster…

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

EFL Cup, Semi-Finals, first legs, 7-8 January

The EFL Cup has reached the Semi Final stage. It’s a bit of deja vu for Manchester, a repeat of the 2010 semi final when a 90th minute Wayne Rooney goal gave United a 4-3 aggregate win. Things weren’t quite as lopsided as the bookies thing tonight’s going to be – United only have a 19.7% chance of winning. RED’s a touch more generous at 28.8%. United will want at least a two goal margin and a clean sheet, to hope to have a chance of progressing – RED puts that outcome at 4.8%.

Leicester play Villa in the other semi-final – another uneven match-up with Leicester looking good for the top 4, and Villa battling against relegation. A comfortable 2-0 home win is a much more likely 13% here.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Lower Leagues, January 4 2020

2020 is here. RED now has 2020 vision by default. Only one League One match survives the FA Cup, though nine in League Two.

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

FA Cup Spotlight: Reading vs Blackpool

RED has its forecasts in the Reading matchday programme now, and they will be there today when Reading entertain Blackpool in the FA Cup. Here is the main section:

It looks like it should be a tough afternoon for today’s visitors, especially adding in the kind of form the Royals are in.

Here also is a plot of how Reading’s Elo strength has evolved over the last five years, as well as Blackpool’s:

FA Cup, Round 3, January 4-6

The FA Cup Third Round has arrived! A few glitches has meant RED hasn’t got his forecasts online until now, after the first set of matches have begun. But here they are:

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Lower League Forecasts, New Year’s Day

2019 is over, does RED have 2020 vision? Lower league forecasts for New Year’s Day are in the two tables below. Top of the table clash at Adams Park in League One, and at the New Lawn in League Two. Of course, both are expected to finish 1-1…

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R21 (1-2 Jan): Arsenal v Man U (Mid-table clash…), forecast 1-1 (12%).

Arsenal are thoroughly mid-table at best this season, and Man Utd may be playing well, but they will be fortunate to finish in their current position of 5th, given that Spurs and Wolves objectively look stronger. Arsenal host Utd in the evening game on New Year’s day. The Model is in almost complete agreement with the average bookmaker odds on the result for this one. Arsenal have a 36% chance of winning and Man Utd have a 38% chance. The most likely outcome is 1-1 (12%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 21 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Prem Forecasts R21 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R26 (1-2 Jan, 2020) — Rooney is a Ram!

Derby managed to break their winless run and claim three points against Charlton last night, despite being down to 10 men. They will start 2020 hopeful, against Barnsley at home, and with a certain Wayne Rooney most likely on the bench. The Model makes the Rams strong favourites, at 48% for the win, and stronger than the bookies, who have them at 41%. The most likely outcome though is 1-1 (12%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 26 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Championship forecasts R26 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R25 (Dec 29-30) – Happy New Year?

It’s the last set of matches of 2019, who can end the year on a high?

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Lower League Forecasts, 29 December 2019

The last matches of 2019 in the lower leagues take place on Sunday. How did things look ten years ago, out of interest?

Well, the 2009-10 League One Title was won by Norwich City, with Southampton in seventh place, and Brighton in 13th place. In addition to those current Premier League teams, Huddersfield, relegated from the Premier League last season, finished in sixth place. Brentford, Charlton, Millwall and Leeds are now in the Championship. Swindon, Colchester, Walsall, Carlisle, Oldham, Leyton Orient, and Exeter are in League Two. Three teams, Hartlepool United (20th), Stockport County (24th) and Yeovil Town (15th) have since fallen out of the Football League. Leaving just Bristol Rovers (11th), MK Dons (17th), Tranmere (19th), Gillingham (21st) and Southend (23rd) in this season’s League One. Note that two of those teams got relegated that season, and two of the others have spent time out of the Football League in the intervening years.

Testament to the extent of change in a system allowing promotion and relegation for the better and worse managed teams…

  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.