Scorecasting Economists

Championship, R10 (1-2 Oct, 2019) — Stoke better than 50% chance of beating Terriers

The model likes 1-1. In 11 of the 12 matches on Tuesday and Wednesday night the Model predicts 1-1 is the most likely outcome. Only in the bottom-of-the-table clash between Stoke and Huddersfield does the Model see a significant point of difference, with Stoke forecast to beat Huddersfield, with 1.6 goals expected for the home side but less than 1 for the Terriers. In this particular fixture, the Model provides a similar forecast to the average among bookmaker odds, with the former forecasting a 51% chance of a Stoke win and the latter 53%.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 10 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Championship forecasts R10, 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Spotlight on… Oldham

Brunton Park is not a happy hunting ground for Oldham. One win in six visits going back to January 2011, and last year’s 6-0 Boxing Day hammering that saw the end of Frank Bunn’s tenure at Boundary Park. Carlisle are only a point and two positions better off than Oldham, and indeed Oldham retain a higher Elo rating than Carlisle. But RED and the bookmakers are agreed that Carlisle are favourites on Saturday – RED puts their chances of winning at 44%, the bookmakers at 41%. A 1-1 draw is most likely (12.6%), followed by a 1-0 home win (11.5%) and a 1-0 away win (9%).

League One, Round 11, Sept 27-28 – Bolton’s resurgence?

Bolton very nearly caused a significant upset, denied in the closing seconds against Sunderland last weekend. Have they turned the corner? The bookmakers don’t think so, giving them just a 9.5% chance at Portsmouth. RED isn’t much more hopeful, either, giving them just 15% to win. A 2-0 win for Pompey is most likely (11.4%).

Championship, R9 (27-29 Sept, 2019) – Derby County: Model doesn’t forecast captain’s leg being smashed in drink-drive incident.

Drama at Derby. It sounds like something out of “Dream Team” (really miss that show – soap opera and football combined, why did Harchester Utd have to end?) Mass drink-driving offences and the captain’s leg getting smashed don’t feature as variables in the Scorecasting Model. So perhaps Derby’s expected goals forecast this weekend of 1.4 at home to Birmingham is a little ambitious. Nonetheless, the Model and bookmaker implied forecasts of a Derby win are similar, at 45% and 43%, respectively.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 9 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Forecasts EFL Champ R9 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R7 (28-30 Sept) — Man U marginal underdogs at HOME!

Manchester Utd are struggling. Their “kids” and rotation players have in the past two weeks struggled to defeat third tier Rochdale in the League Cup and Kazakh champions Astana in the UEFA Cup. Last weekend they were comfortably brushed aside by West Ham. There is no respite for Ole’s men this weekend either, as they host Arsenal in the Monday night fixture at Old Trafford. Given recent form, it is no surprise that the Model makes Man U rare (though slight) underdogs at home. Both teams are expected to score one and a third goals, and the most likely outcome is 1-1 (12.3%). Incidentally, the Model is slightly more pessimistic based on recent form than the bookmakers, who imply a higher probability of a Man U win (41%).

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 7 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

PL forecasts R7 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Championship, R8 (21-22 Sept, 2019) – Reading marginal favourites against Blackburn (1.4 vs 1.2 expected goals)

The 1st Reading Football Economics Workshop is currently taking place. After the talks have finished, several participants are attending this weekend’s Championship fixture between Reading and Blackburn. According to RED, this won’t be a goalfest. Reading are expected to score 1.4 goals and Blackburn just 1.2 goals. The home side, although struggling this season, have a slight advantage, with a 40% chance of victory. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome is 1-1 (13%). Interestingly, the Model has almost exactly the same opinion on this fixture as the average among bookmakers, with the latter seeming to predict a 39% chance of a Reading win.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 8 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Champ forecasts, R8, 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R6 (20-22 Sept) — City given 78% chance of bouncing back with a win

Man City were humbled in East Anglia last weekend. The long-term injury to Laporte appears to have left them threadbare at the back. But at home Manchester City are still a frightening beast, and the new Watford manager has slim chances in his first game. The Model expects Man City to score 2.6 goals to Watford’s 0.7, and gives the hosts a 78.3% chance of a win. The bookmakers appear to argue this is an underestimate, as the average of their odds implies an 86.3% chance of a home win. The most likely outcome is 2-0 (13%).

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 6 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

EPL forecasts R6 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.