The BBCDebate: absentees more influential?

Last night the BBC aired its debate of the challengers, as it put it, with leaders of the five opposition parties squaring up to each other. Prime Minister David Cameron and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg did not participate, and the latter was at pains to point out that he wasn’t even invited.

There’s little doubt this wasn’t the biggest Twitter event of the election campaign, but nonetheless well over a thousand tweets per minute were recorded, and in total we collected 151,417 tweets surrounding the event. Most activity, understandably, came towards the end of the debate as each politician tried to leave viewers with their version of events:

Number of tweets per minute

The spike towards the end could perhaps be explained away by the three “major” parties going into spinning overdrive as the debate closed; this seems clearer looking at the numbers of tweets per party:

Number of tweets per party

The second Ukip spike, just after 8:30pm, appears to coincide with Nigel Farage’s attack on the audience both in the studio and at home, while nearer 9pm is when the debate moved to immigration; at this point Ukip were getting more than twice as many mentions on Twitter as any other party.

As Sylvia outlined in our last post after the seven-way debate, we’ve created out own sentiment index, and below we plot the index for each of the parties, including the two not participating in the debate:

Sentiment during #BBCDebate

 

What is perhaps most notable is that the index with the biggest range is the Conservative one, despite David Cameron not participating; just before 9, not long after the question on defence, Conservative sentiment is at rock bottom, but just before the end of the debate (perhaps co-ordinated?), Tory sentiment is soaring, although in the final minute Labour’s sentiment is almost identical. The SNP, widely noted for their social media campaigning, also show a late burst, although Sturgeon’s somewhat disappointing final comments appear reflected in the last minute tail off in sentiment.

Overall it’s clear that very little is clear regarding who “won” last night, and whether indeed it was one of the two parties that didn’t participate – at least in the televised debate…

Have the bookies adjusted for Ashcroft?

Last Wednesday social media was ablaze with Lord Ashcroft’s latest set of Scottish polls, which suggest that Labour are still on course for a Scottish wipeout on May 7. Has this affected what the bookies have to say?

As before, we look at mean implied probabilities for bookmakers, and this time consider the markets for banded ranges of seats for Labour. The impact of worse than previously anticipated polling in Scotland ought to be reflected in a lower seat expectation than previously. Betfair, Bet365, SkyBet, Ladbrokes and William Hill report markets on bands of seats a party wins at the election, and the bands are

  • less than 200 seats
  • 201-225 seats
  • 225 seats and under
  • 226-250 seats
  • 251-275 seats
  • 276-300 seats
  • 301-325 seats
  • 326-350 seats
  • 326 seats or over
  • 351-375 seats
  • 351 seats or over
  • 376-400 seats
  • 401 or more seats

Clearly the options towards the bottom of that range are hugely unlikely (bookies rate anything above 375 seats as less than 5% likely to happen), but it’s the upper half of the range when the action has been:

lab_bands

The black vertical line is March 4, when the Ashcroft Polls were released. Hence prices have moved since the announcement, but with the range 276-300 falling in likelihood only from 35% to 34% and 301-325 from 23% to 21%, the impact doesn’t appear to have been dramatic. Lower seat totals like 251-275 increased from 28% to 32%. Less likely events saw bigger moves, with 326-350 seats falling from 12.5% to 7% today.

Overall, the numbers would appear to suggest that the Ashcroft polls are reinforcing the current trends, at least in terms of bookmaker prices; an update to the plot of bookmaker implied probabilities for most seats from two weeks ago emphasises this:

most_seats_2015-03-09