Why the weather forecast will always be a bit wrong

Weather forecasting is extremely hard – it is a prediction of something that is inherently unpredictable. Reading scientist Jon Shonk explains why forecasts will never be completely accurate, despite improvements in forecast skill over the decades.

The science of weather forecasting falls to public scrutiny every single day. When the forecast is correct, we rarely comment, but we are often quick to complain when the forecast is wrong. Are we ever likely to achieve a perfect forecast that is accurate to the hour?

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Three (and a half) reasons why it has been so hot and dry in the UK and Ireland

We’re all keenly aware of the heat wave that is affecting the UK and beyond – but why might it be happening? Len Shaffrey, University of Reading Professor of Climate Science, explains all in a new post for The Conversation.

Image credit: the Met Office

The UK and Ireland have been experiencing a prolonged hot and dry spell since June, with the first half of summer being the UK’s driest on record. The lack of rainfall has led to hosepipe bans in Northern Ireland and the north-west of England, while the weather is also playing havoc with farming. A shortage of lettuce and broccoli is expected in the next few months, and grass isn’t growing fast enough to feed Ireland’s sheep and cattle through the winter.

The hot and dry weather is associated with a high pressure weather system situated over the UK. The high pressure means that the storms the UK occasionally gets at this time of year are being steered much further northwards towards Iceland. While the UK and Ireland have been wilting in the sunshine, Reykjavík has recorded its wettest (May) and cloudiest (June) months on record.

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The heatwave in numbers

The University of Reading weather records, captured at the Atmospheric Observatory, are updated daily and are publicly available online. Temperatures and rain records go back to 1908, while the sunshine records start in 1956. Dr Rob Thompson in the Department of Meteorology has crunched the numbers to give his perspective on the current heatwave.

32           The 32-day period with no rain recorded at the University of Reading weather station this summer was the fifth longest on our record. This run, between 18 June and 19 July inclusive, ended when 0.5mm of rain fell on Friday 20 July. The outright Reading record for days with no rain observed is 37 days, which has occurred twice, in summer 1976 and summer into autumn 1959.

6.5          The tiny amount of rain that fell last week is nowhere near enough to help our gardens and the wider countryside, though. So what if we allow a little rain in a day and keep counting? The last recorded rain before Friday was on 17 June, when just 0.2mm fell, while 0.3mm fell the day before that. There was also 0.3mm on 9 June, 1mm on 7 June and 4.6mm on 3 June. This gives a June total of 6.5mm, making it the driest month since April 2011, and the driest June since 1962.

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Why clear skies over the Pacific are speeding up climate change

Global warming is accelerating as time passes. Models predict that trend is set to continue even if we manage to rein in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere – but why? On World Oceans Day, Dr Paulo Ceppi explains that it’s all down to increasingly cloudless skies over the Pacific Ocean.

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Data Assimilation Meeting

Data Assimilation Research Centre Meeting

Invited speaker: Ali Aydogdu (NERSC, Norway)
‘Ensemble data assimilation on a non-conservative adaptive moving mesh’

 

Seminars occur during term time on Wednesdays at 11:00-12:00 in Agriculture 1L16.

Urban-Met Seminar

 

Speakers: David, Jess, Elliott
Book reading: Urban Climates (Oke et al., 2017), Ch 10.1, 10.2, 10.3

Urban-Met Seminar

Speakers: Yuya, Denise, Ting

Book reading: Urban Climates (Oke et al., 2017), Ch 9.1, 9.2, 9.3

Meteorology Lunchtime Seminar

Lunchtime Seminars take place during term time on Tuesdays from 13:00 to 13:50 (unless otherwise stated) in the Sutcliffe Lecture Theatre, Meteorology Building GU01, University of Reading, Earley Gate. The Meteorology and Agriculture Buildings can be located using the “find us” link at the bottom of this page. Seminars are given by students and staff in the Department and cover a broad range of topics related to weather and climate. Everyone is welcome to attend. 

Speaker: Chris Scott 
‘The Ionospheric response over the UK to major bombing raids during World War II’

Meteorology Lunchtime Seminar

Lunchtime Seminars take place during term time on Tuesdays from 13:00 to 13:50 (unless otherwise stated) in the Sutcliffe Lecture Theatre, Meteorology Building GU01, University of Reading, Earley Gate. The Meteorology and Agriculture Buildings can be located using the “find us” link at the bottom of this page. Seminars are given by students and staff in the Department and cover a broad range of topics related to weather and climate. Everyone is welcome to attend. 

Speaker: Holly Turner 
‘Estimating the effects of vertical wind shear on orographic gravity wave drag’

Meteorology Lunchtime Seminar

Lunchtime Seminars take place during term time on Tuesdays from 13:00 to 13:50 (unless otherwise stated) in the Sutcliffe Lecture Theatre, Meteorology Building GU01, University of Reading, Earley Gate. The Meteorology and Agriculture Buildings can be located using the “find us” link at the bottom of this page. Seminars are given by students and staff in the Department and cover a broad range of topics related to weather and climate. Everyone is welcome to attend. 

Speaker: Emma Hopkin 
‘Developing ceilometers from a simple cloud base measurement to a tool for evaluating and assimilating ice water content’