An analogue forecast for winter 2014/15 in Reading

By Roger Brugge

Reluctant as I am to do long-range predictions, analysis of Reading data for the period 1961-2010 suggests the following:

Rainfall – 2014 has given us a dry September and (already) a wet October. Let’s assume that overall autumn rainfall is close to normal. After an autumn with normal rainfall the likelihood of winter being

  • Wet/very wet  is 17%
  • Normal: 50%
  • Dry or very dry: 33%

October has been a dull month so far after near-normal September sunshine. Overall the autumn may well have close to normal sunshine. After a ‘normal’ autumn we find that winter sunshine was as follows:

  • Sunny or very sunny is 23%
  • Normal : 57%
  • Dull or very dull: 20%

Finally, autumn has so far been a warm season with a mild October after a warm September. Warm or very warm autumns are followed by winters that were

  • Mild or very mild is 56%
  • Normal: 12%
  • Cold or very cold: 32%

So, a tongue-in-cheek forecast at this mid-way point in October would be for a winter in Reading that is close to normal in terms of rainfall and sunshine, but probably milder than average.

17 October 2014

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