Archive for the ‘Seasonal forecasting’ Category

Early thoughts on winter 2016-17 …

By Chimene Daleu In the UK, colder winter weather is usually caused by high pressure developing to the north, which allows cold arctic or polar continental air masses to push towards the UK. Last year, winter was much milder than average with a mean temperature of 5.5°C, 1.8 degC above the average. This was the […]

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Was the weather of June 2016 really that bad?

By Roger Brugge Yes, there were frequent thunderstorms, some localised flooding and a lack of very high temperatures – but then is this really unusual for June in Reading (or southern England)? Or might it just be a matter of ‘rose-tinted glasses’ leading us to expect scorchingly-hot/dry weather in June – and the fact that […]

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An analogue forecast for winter 2014/15 in Reading

By Roger Brugge Reluctant as I am to do long-range predictions, analysis of Reading data for the period 1961-2010 suggests the following: Rainfall – 2014 has given us a dry September and (already) a wet October. Let’s assume that overall autumn rainfall is close to normal. After an autumn with normal rainfall the likelihood of winter […]

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