Category Archives: Climate modelling

What sets the pattern of dynamic sea level change in the Southern Ocean?

By: Matthew Couldrey Figure 1a: Multi-model mean projection of dynamic and steric (i.e. due to thermal and/or haline expansion/contraction) sea level rise averaged over 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 forced with a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), including 0.18 m +/- 0.05 … Continue reading

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Convective self-aggregation: growing storms in a virtual laboratory

By: Chris Holloway Figure 1: An example of convective self-aggregation from an RCE simulation using the Met Office Unified Model at 4km grid length with 300 K SST.  Time mean precipitation in mm/day for (a) Day 2 (still scattered), and … Continue reading

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Modelling Ice Sheets in the global Earth System

By: Robin Smith As Till wrote recently, our national flagship climate model (UKESM1, the UK Earth System Model) has been officially released for the community to use, after more than six years in development by a team drawn from across … Continue reading

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SuPy: An urban land surface model for Pythonista

By: Ting Sun Python is now extensively employed by the atmospheric sciences community for data analyses and numerical modelling thanks to its simplicity and the large scientific Python ecosystem (e.g., PyData community). Although I cherish Mathematica as my native programming … Continue reading

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UKESM1 ready to use and in production for CMIP6

By: Till Kuhlbrodt Development of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) has reached a major milestone. After six years of work on the model (see my earlier blog post here) the UKESM core group, and other scientists, are now running … Continue reading

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ESMValTool : An Evaluation Tool for Earth System Models

By: Ranjini Swaminathan Global Climate Models are computer programs that simulate the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and the effects of these components on one another. Earth System Models (ESMs) are global climate models that include biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial … Continue reading

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North Atlantic post-tropical cyclones

By Alexander Baker Figure 1: The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season. Ophelia’s location stands out from the typical tracks of North Atlantic tropical cyclones during the active 2017 season. Selected major hurricanes occurring during 2017 – Irma, Jose and Maria – … Continue reading

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Later Wet Seasons with More Intense Rainfall over Africa under Future Climate Change

By Caroline Dunning Rainfall is projected to change as the planet warms in response to rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. New research indicates future changes in the timing and characteristics of the rainy seasons over Africa with important implications … Continue reading

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Steps To Make Sea Ice Projections More Robust

By David Schroeder Climate model projections are our best approach to make predictions about future sea ice in both hemispheres for the whole 21st century. Given the large spread between individual model projections and distinct discrepancies between model results and … Continue reading

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Seasonal Forecasting and the 2018 European Heatwave

By Len Shaffrey The summer of 2018 has been one of the warmest on record in the UK and Europe. Warm temperatures over the summer led to impacts on agriculture, water resources and human health. One interesting question is how predictable … Continue reading

Posted in Atlantic, Atmospheric circulation, Climate, Climate change, Climate modelling, Environmental hazards, Historical climatology, Hydrology, Numerical modelling, Seasonal forecasting, Waves | Leave a comment