Category Archives: Climate

On the predictability of European summer weather patterns

By Albert Ossό Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, the current seasonal dynamic model forecasts for European summers have very little skill (Arribas et al. 2011). … Continue reading

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Who discovered the Madden-Julian Oscillation?

By Simon Peatman The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important meteorological phenomena in the tropics. With a timescale of 30–90 days it bridges the gap between weather and climate (Zhang, 2013), potentially providing predictability over several weeks. … Continue reading

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Evaluating convective-permitting models over South Africa

By Will Keat Several operational forecasting centres around the world now run convective-permitting models (CPMs) to forecast rainfall. These kilometre-scale models are sufficiently high  resolution to allow convection to be resolved explicitly (i.e. without the need for parameterisation), and have … Continue reading

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The “size” of the NWP/DA problem

By Javier Amezcua There is a professor in the University of Reading that likes to say that the Data Assimilation (DA) problem in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is larger than the size of the universe (estimated to be around 1080 … Continue reading

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U.K. Spring Weather and the Natural World

By Pete Inness We are now just over half way through April, so about half way through meteorological Spring which is defined as March, April and May. Despite the warm weather of the last few days it’s been a fairly … Continue reading

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Estimating the risks of climate change: what are the effects of climate policy?

By Nigel Arnell I am writing this from Beijing, where the 13th National People’s Congress has just reaffirmed the Chinese commitment to control future emissions of greenhouse gases and meet the aspirations of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This … Continue reading

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Is the Montreal Protocol really working?

By Michaela Hegglin The Montreal Protocol, which celebrated its 30th birthday last year, is an international treaty established in 1987 to protect the ozone layer from human-made ozone depleting substances. The Montreal Protocol has been hailed as the most effective … Continue reading

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Improving estimates of soil moisture over Ghana

By Ewan Pinnington This work aims to improve estimates of soil moisture over Ghana as part of the ERADACS project. In regions where the population relies on subsistence farming it is soil moisture, rather than precipitation per se, that is … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Climate, Climate modelling, data assimilation, Hydrology, land use, Numerical modelling | Tagged | Leave a comment

A simple way to find out where the moisture for regional rainfall comes from

by Liang Guo Moisture tracing is an interesting scientific topic that has fascinated meteorologists and hydrologists for decades. Methods for tracing moisture are numerous, from observations to numerical modelling, from water isotopes to remote sensing, from online tracking to off-line … Continue reading

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Stronger windstorms and higher wind risk in a warmer climate

By Oscar Martínez-Alvarado The most devastating type of winter storms to affect north-west Europe are characterised by a descending jet of air, known as a sting jet, that can result in strong, localised surface winds and wind gusts in a region … Continue reading

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