Category Archives: Seasonal forecasting

Seasonal Forecasting and the 2018 European Heatwave

By Len Shaffrey The summer of 2018 has been one of the warmest on record in the UK and Europe. Warm temperatures over the summer led to impacts on agriculture, water resources and human health. One interesting question is how predictable … Continue reading

Posted in Atlantic, Atmospheric circulation, Climate, Climate change, Climate modelling, Environmental hazards, Historical climatology, Hydrology, Numerical modelling, Seasonal forecasting, Waves | Leave a comment

Is it a normal season this year for tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific?

By Xiangbo Feng  The Western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active area for tropical cyclones (TCs).  The number of TCs occurred in the WNP so far (end of October) this year is 26 – just the average number of … Continue reading

Posted in Atmospheric circulation, Climate, Climate modelling, earth observation, ENSO, Equatorial waves, Historical climatology, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Numerical modelling, Seasonal forecasting, Tropical cyclones, Waves, Weather forecasting, Western North Pacific, Wind | Leave a comment

On the predictability of European summer weather patterns

By Albert Ossό Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, the current seasonal dynamic model forecasts for European summers have very little skill (Arribas et al. 2011). … Continue reading

Posted in Climate, Climate modelling, Seasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

Impacts of climate variability and change on the energy sector: A case study for winter 2009/10

By Emma Suckling Secure and reliable energy supplies are an essential part of modern economic life. But the national and global infrastructures that deliver energy are changing rapidly in the face of new and unprecedented challenges, including the need to … Continue reading

Posted in Climate, Climate change, Climate modelling, Renewable energy, Seasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

Forecasting the Indian monsoon

By Arathy Menon The South Asian monsoon, which brings rainfall to India and the neighbouring countries during the boreal summer season, is a major atmospheric circulation system. India receives more than 80% of its annual rainfall during the monsoon season, generally … Continue reading

Posted in Climate, Climate modelling, Monsoons, Numerical modelling, Seasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

El Niño in West and Central Africa

By Chimene Daleu   What is El Niño, how often does it occur, and why is everyone so concerned this year? El Niño is the warming phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During an El Niño event, the … Continue reading

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Can we improve the way we forecast the weather in three weeks time?

By Andrew Charlton-Perez This week at the University of Reading is enhancement week and I’ve also been spending some time learning about an area of science which I don’t know so well and which is developing fast at the ECMWF … Continue reading

Posted in Conferences, Numerical modelling, Seasonal forecasting, Weather | Tagged | Leave a comment

What will the weather be like in 3 weeks time?

By Steve Woolnough This may seem like a silly question, and whilst weather forecasts can’t tell you if it will be raining at lunchtime three weeks from today, they may be able to tell you whether in 3 weeks it’s … Continue reading

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