Category Archives: Weather forecasting

What’s in a number?

By Nancy Nichols Should you care about the numerical accuracy of your computer? After all, most machines now retain about 16 digits of accuracy, but usually only about 3-4 figures of accuracy are needed for most applications;  so what’s the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate modelling, data assimilation, Numerical modelling, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

Can observations of the ocean help predict the weather?

By Amos Lawless It has long been recognized that there are strong interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean. For example, the sea surface temperature affects what happens in the lower boundary of the atmosphere, while heat, momentum and moisture … Continue reading

Posted in Boundary layer, data assimilation, Numerical modelling, Oceans, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

Reducing climate change from aviation: could climate-friendly routing play a part?

By Emma Irvine It’s commonly known that burning fossil fuels, like in jet engines, leads to the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) which causes global warming. It is perhaps less well known that, particularly in the case of aviation, carbon … Continue reading

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Nice weather, atmospheric blocking and forecasts

By Oscar Martinez-Alvarado With the beginning of spring (either the ‘meteorological’ spring on 1 March or the ‘astronomical’ spring on 20 March, as the Met Office explains here), the UK and indeed the whole Northern Hemisphere start experiencing warmer weather. The … Continue reading

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Observation uncertainty in data assimilation

By Sarah Dance Approximately 4 million properties in the UK are at risk from surface-water flooding which occurs when heavy rainfall overwhelms the drainage capacity of the local area. Several national weather centres have been developing new numerical forecasting systems … Continue reading

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How can a hurricane near the USA affect the weather in Europe?

By John Methven It may seem bizarre that processes occurring within clouds near the USA, involving tiny ice crystals and water droplets, can have an influence on high-impact weather events thousands of kilometres away in Europe, and our ability to predict them … Continue reading

Posted in Environmental physics, Measurements and instrumentation, Numerical modelling, University of Reading, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

Where is the high probability?

By Peter Jan van Leeuwen To determine the uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts an ensemble of model runs is used, see Figure 1. Each model run represents a plausible scenario of what the atmosphere or the climate system will do, … Continue reading

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Why does it always rain on me?

By Helen Dacre Last Monday morning I got so wet on my cycle to work that I had to spend 10 minutes under the hand dryer in the toilets to stop myself looking like a drowned rat. Being the keen … Continue reading

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Predictions and errors

By Javier Amezcua Predicting is one of the most ambitious goals of science. It goes beyond describing and explaining, and it attempts to “tell the future”. The prediction process has the following basic steps: We have an estimate of the … Continue reading

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A Random Blog

By Peter Clark As a young scientist I was introduced to turbulent flow in the traditional way – we consider an ‘infinite ensemble of realisations’ of a random flow, and split each realisation into the average over the ensemble and … Continue reading

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