CR2025_21 Developing metrics of change for pollinating insects in the UK

Lead Supervisor: Francesca Mancini, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

Email: framan@ceh.ac.uk

Co-supervisors: Nick J B Isaac, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Claire Carvell, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Simon Potts, Department of Sustainable Land Management, University of Reading

The biodiversity crisis is a key topic in the media and in the development of national and international policies, particularly with reports of insect declines. Pollination is a vital ecosystem service that benefits agricultural and horticultural production and is essential for maintaining wildflower biodiversity. By improving the yield, quality and resilience of crops, insect pollination has been valued at £1 billion per year to the UK economy. However, there is growing concern regarding the population status of insect pollinators, and in turn the pollination service they provide¹. High quality data, and derived indicators, are therefore essential to help inform changes in policies and practices to better conserve pollinators and sustainably manage crop pollination services.

Since 2017, the UK Pollinator Monitoring Scheme (PoMS) has been collecting high-quality data on the abundance of pollinating insects through two standardised surveys: 1) an intensive systematic survey of pollinators generating species-level data, and 2) Flower-Insect Timed Counts, a mass participation survey collecting flower visitor data at a broad taxonomic level. The scheme has now generated 8 years of data and aims to use these to support and inform the National Pollinator Strategies of the UK and further our understanding of the status and trends of pollinators and pollination services.

Currently there is one official metric of trends in pollinating insects in the UK that includes bees and hoverflies: the UK Biodiversity Indicator D1c. D1c is an indicator of occupancy, which can be a powerful way of modelling changes in distribution across a large number of species²; however, occupancy can mask more dramatic shifts in abundance. The new indicator of species abundance in England includes some pollinating insects (butterflies and bumblebees) but leaves many under-represented. At present, neither of these indicators uses data from PoMS. A better understanding of how PoMS data inform on abundance is needed in order to design improved metrics of pollinator biodiversity able to detect changes earlier and with much deeper insights, to better target policy support and on the ground actions.

In this project you will use a variety of cutting-edge modelling techniques and the data collected by UK PoMS to derive novel metrics to monitor pollinating insects in the UK. This would underpin a clearer understanding of patterns of change, likely causes of shifts and potentially the effectiveness of mitigation options. You will also have the opportunity to work on different types of data, including large citizen science datasets to develop integrated indicators. You will develop state-of-the-art Bayesian hierarchical integrated models that make use of multiple data sources to generate unified metrics of pollinator change³.

The outputs from this project will inform the production of official statistics and indicators which will help inform new policies and practices to conserve UK pollinators.

The UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) is a centre of scientific excellence with a prominent role in training the next generation of environmental researchers. UKCEH offers a unique training environment for postgraduate researchers including access to world-class scientists, an active postgraduate community, and a variety of specialised training courses. You will be supported by the Early Careers Advisor, local welfare officers, postgraduate liaison officers and local postgraduate representatives, offering mentoring for your career development.

The University of Reading provides world-class research education programs and is an established world leader in pollinator and pollination research. During your PhD you will have access to cutting-edge technology and learn the latest research techniques. We also provide dedicated training in important transferable skills that will support your career aspirations.

This project also includes a placement at the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC). JNCC is a public body that advises the UK Government and devolved administrations on nature conservation issues at UK and European level. You will have the opportunity to co-develop the placement with JNCC, designing a project around the use of citizen science monitoring to produce biodiversity indicators and communicating the outputs to different audiences.

Training opportunities:

You will develop a strong, highly transferable skillset in modelling biodiversity data using novel data analysis and computational techniques. These skills in modern data science and statistics are in very high demand both in academia and industry. You will have access to world-leading networks of pollinator researchers through several European projects (e.g. Safeguard, VALOR) led by Reading University and on which UKCEH is a partner.

The placement within JNCC will provide you with hands-on experience of how evidence on biodiversity change is developed and used, and the key policy drivers for producing this evidence across the UK. 

Student profile: 

This project would be suitable for students with a degree in biology, ecology or closely related environmental science that has included the use of applied statistical modelling. It may also be suitable for a student with a degree in applied statistics and an interest in natural history, biodiversity or citizen science. Computational and statistical skills, e.g. knowledge of R, are essential. 

Please note: Due to the nature of this project and to comply with visa regulations, only Home students should apply.

Co-Sponsorship details:

The project will receive co-sponsorship from the Joint Nature Conservation Committee. This co-sponsorship will be in the form of a placement.

References:

1. Potts, S. G. et al. Safeguarding pollinators and their values to human well-being. Nature 540, 220–229 (2016).
2. Powney, G. D. et al. Widespread losses of pollinating insects in Britain. Nat Commun 10, 1–6 (2019).
3. Isaac, N. J. B. et al. Data Integration for Large-Scale Models of Species Distributions. Trends Ecol Evol 35, 56–67 (2020).