Lower Leagues, R1 (4 August, 2018)

The English Football League One and Two seasons begin in earnest on Saturday. Sunderland begin lower-league life by hosting Charlton Athletic – a fixture which 13 years ago graced the Premier League. Both teams are expected to fight for automatic promotion this season (Sunderland 43.6%, Charlton 9.8%), and so this game is expected to be tight – the most likely scoreline sees Sunderland shading it by the only goal of the game.
Coventry‘s return to League One after Play-Off promotion from League Two is a tricky home fixture against Scunthorpe, League One Play-Off Semi-Finalists last season. Scunthorpe are the more likely to take home three points, and the most likely scoreline sees them winning 1-0.
In League Two, two relegated sides face off on the opening day, as MK Dons visit Boundary Park to face Oldham. Your author is a nervous Oldham fan, scarred from many seasons of decline, and finds the most likely outcome, a 1-0 home win, entertaining. Oldham and MK Dons are both expected to fight for an immediate return to League One, but our model is, as yet, unable to factor in the kinds of general malaise and incompetence one only observes at one’s own football club.