The table below gives the model’s forecasts for Round 2 of the Premier League.
We still predict the most likely scoreline in the match, but read here on how and why we have expended our range of forecasts coming from the model.
[Table Key below]

Most likely Win (%) Conditional
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A) Score C.Pr (%)
PL Chelsea Arsenal 1-1 12 49 26 1-0 10
PL W Ham B’mouth 2-1 10 54 24 2-1 10
PL Spurs Fulham 1-0 15 64 13 1-0 15
PL Cardiff N’castle 1-0 21 62 12 1-0 21
PL Everton So’ton 1-1 11 57 21 1-0 10
PL Burnley Watford 1-0 15 44 26 1-0 15
PL Leicester Wolves 0-1 14 24 48 0-1 14
PL Man C Hudd 3-0 14 92 1 3-0 14
PL Brighton Man U 0-1 17 10 69 0-1 17
PL C Palace L’pool 1-2 8 13 71 1-2 8

Key:
Most likely – gives the model’s forecast of the most likely (unconditional) outcome of the match.
Win (%) – gives the model predicted chance of either the Home team, P(H), or the Away team, P(A), coming away from the match with a win (one hundred minus the sum of these two values gives the chance of a draw).
Conditional – gives the most likely scoreline which is consistent with the most likely result in the match.
C.Pr (%) – gives the chances of the conditional scoreline forecast happening among all other possible scorelines in the match.