Reading chucked away a two-goal lead in midweek, and are yet to register their first win of the season. They face a difficult trip to Villa Park, where the Home side will be buoyed by their 95th minute equaliser on Wednesday night. The model gives Villa a 61% chance of taking the spoils from this one (1-0).
QPR and Steve McClaren have a 100% record so far this season. But not a happy one. They face the challenging visit of Wigan, who smashed Stoke in their last game. Wigan are marginal favourites to take this one (0-1).
Looking at the statistics in the top two leagues this season , it is clear who should start between the sticks for England at Wembley in a fortnight — Ben Alnwick. Bolton’s improbable start to the season has a lot to thank the former Manchester Utd keeper for, as well as their forwards for some clinical finishing. However, the model cannot quite believe Bolton’s run of success and forecasts a tight game against Sheffield Utd tomorrow (1-1).
The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw


Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Ch Middlesbrough West Brom 1-0 15 41 28
Ch Notts Forest Birmingham 1-0 14 53 21
Ch Blackburn Brentford 1-2 9 36 39
Ch Swansea Bristol City 1-0 12 54 22
Ch Stoke Hull 1-0 10 55 22
Ch Sheffield Wed Ipswich 1-0 15 51 22
Ch Norwich Leeds 2-1 9 46 30
Ch Derby Preston 1-0 15 50 23
Ch Aston Villa Reading 1-0 14 61 16
Ch Bolton Sheff Utd 1-1 13 36 35
Ch QPR Wigan 0-1 10 34 39
Ch Rotherham Millwall 0-1 12 31 42

As discussed before (here, here & here), we continue to tinker with our forecasting method. Our aim has always been to provide a single scoreline forecast to hang our hats on. But it is challenging to balance both plausible result and score forecasts simultaneously, which will perform well against some metric. Therefore, we are now making “Fuzzy Conditional” forecasts, discussed here.