For the First Round of the League Cup (or EFL Cup, or Carabao Cup), we produced some forecasts, and these were our first conditional forecasts. Since then we’ve experimented further with conditional forecasts, trying to get the mix between home wins, draws and away wins about right, given the likelihood of individual scoreline outcomes. That’s on-going, but as the Second Round of the League Cup takes place tonight and tomorrow night, it seemed like a good enough excuse to produce some more “off piste” forecasts, as it were.
Due also to the time it takes to estimate our models over larger sample sizes on our “super computer” (all leagues plus cup games took 29 minutes tonight), and various other glitches (not all work related, either), this set of forecasts represents another first: the first set of forecasts produced after kick off in most of the games (long after, in the case of Swansea vs Crystal Palace, which began at 7:30 this evening).
Nonetheless, here are those forecasts, or rather, nowcasts:
| Most likely | Win (%) | |||||
| Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |||
| Aug-28 | Burton | Aston Villa | 0-1 | 13% | 27% | 45% |
| Aug-28 | Doncaster | Blackpool | 1-0 | 13% | 43% | 29% |
| Aug-28 | QPR | Bristol R | 2-1 | 10% | 52% | 25% |
| Aug-28 | Swansea | C Palace | 1-0 | 10% | 46% | 29% |
| Aug-28 | Brentford | Cheltenham | 2-0 | 10% | 80% | 8% |
| Aug-28 | Hull | Derby | 0-1 | 9% | 35% | 39% |
| Aug-28 | Fulham | Exeter | 2-0 | 9% | 76% | 10% |
| Aug-28 | Leicester | Fleetwood | 2-0 | 10% | 76% | 9% |
| Aug-28 | Wycombe | Forest Green | 2-1 | 10% | 51% | 26% |
| Aug-28 | Stoke | Huddersfield | 1-0 | 13% | 52% | 22% |
| Aug-28 | Blackburn | Lincoln | 1-0 | 12% | 57% | 20% |
| Aug-28 | Walsall | Macclesfield | 1-0 | 14% | 59% | 17% |
| Aug-28 | West Brom | Mansfield | 2-0 | 14% | 71% | 10% |
| Aug-28 | Bournemouth | MK Dons | 2-0 | 10% | 77% | 9% |
| Aug-28 | Cardiff | Norwich | 1-0 | 10% | 52% | 24% |
| Aug-28 | Newport Co | Oxford | 1-2 | 9% | 29% | 46% |
| Aug-28 | Leeds | Preston | 1-0 | 11% | 47% | 27% |
| Aug-28 | Middlesbro | Rochdale | 1-0 | 13% | 67% | 13% |
| Aug-28 | Brighton | Southampton | 1-0 | 14% | 43% | 27% |
| Aug-28 | AFC Wimbledon | West Ham | 0-1 | 12% | 20% | 56% |
| Aug-28 | Sheff Wed | Wolves | 1-1 | 13% | 38% | 32% |
| Aug-29 | Nottm Forest | Newcastle | 0-1 | 11% | 26% | 49% |
| Aug-29 | Millwall | Plymouth | 1-0 | 14% | 52% | 22% |
| Aug-29 | Everton | Rotherham | 3-0 | 12% | 85% | 4% |
| Aug-29 | Reading | Watford | 1-0 | 9% | 37% | 37% |