Six teams remain unbeaten in the Premier League. Two of these meet at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. The model only gives Bournemouth a 3% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is a 3-0 win to Chelsea (12%).
At the foot of the table, West Ham are still searching for their first point. Pellegrini was enthused with his team’s performance last time out against Arsenal. However, West Ham face the Portuguese/Midlands PL newbies this weekend. If Neves and Moutninho continue to purr in midfield, then West Ham should find it tough. Nonetheless, the model suggests West Ham are heavy favourites, with a most likely scoreline of 3-0 (11%).
We certainly do have “Respect, respect, respect” for what Mourinho has achieved in the PL and elsewhere. But football is about “results, results, results”, and respect is as worthless as the Bolivar, just ask the Tinkerman. The Model gives Man Utd a 74% chance of victory at Burnley (0-1; 16%). Anything less is sure to heighten the fact that Mourinho’s side are performing well below expectations this season.
The rest of our Premier League forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Leicester Liverpool 1-2 9 31 46
Brighton Fulham 0-0 16 32 33
Chelsea Bournemouth 3-0 12 88 3
Crystal Palace Southampton 0-1 14 20 52
Everton Huddersfield 2-0 12 87 3
West Ham Wolves 3-0 11 89 3
Manchester City Newcastle 2-0 13 75 8
Cardiff Arsenal 0-1 14 7 74
Burnley Manchester Utd 0-1 16 7 74
Watford Spurs 1-2 10 20 58

As discussed before (here, here & here), we continue to tinker with our forecasting method. Our aim has always been to provide a single scoreline forecast to hang our hats on. But it is challenging to balance both plausible result and score forecasts simultaneously, which will perform well against some metric. Therefore, we are now making “Fuzzy Conditional” forecasts, discussed here.