The Premier League has started, as have our forecasts for it. Testing the model on 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons suggested that on average we might expect to get about one…Read More >
Month: August 2018
The model vs the experts
In various newspaper clippings this week we have been described as “experts”. This is flattering, because neither of us have done more than played a bit of parks football, and…Read More >
Lower Leagues, R2 (August 11)
Sunderland began life in League One with three points last week; this week they face a trip to newly promoted Luton Town. In League Two last season, Luton scored goals…Read More >
Championship, R2 (11 August, 2018)
Last weekend jogged the memories of West Brom, Swansea and Stoke fans. The Championship gives no undue respect to their former Premier League credentials and hefty wage budgets. Our model…Read More >
Premiership, R1 (10-12 August)
Despite the sulks, Mourinho Utd should kick off the season with a win against the Foxes, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 (15%). Of the promoted sides, only Wolves,…Read More >
Championship, R1.5 (7 August, 2018)
There are two Championship fixtures on Tuesday night. None of the teams involved began the season with a win over the weekend. In an all-Midlands tie at the City Ground,…Read More >
Lower Leagues, R1 (4 August, 2018)
The English Football League One and Two seasons begin in earnest on Saturday. Sunderland begin lower-league life by hosting Charlton Athletic – a fixture which 13 years ago graced the Premier League….Read More >
Championship, R1 (3-6 August, 2018)
The English Football League season opens with a trip to Reading for rookie manager Frank Lampard’s Derby. The home side are forecast to have another season looking over their shoulder…Read More >
Scorecasting Economists
Forecasting is a mug’s game, everyone knows this. Nonetheless, we like doing it, especially when it comes to football. We all want to know: how will my team do this…Read More >