The Model enjoyed its international jolly. But the proper football is back this weekend.
Birmingham, without a win so far, face local rivals West Brom on Friday night. The Model only gives the Blues a 23% chance of victory, with the forecast scoreline a 0-1 win to the Baggies.
Leeds currently sit at the top of the Championship tree. On Saturday they face their travelling fans’ most/least favoured away fixture of the season at Millwall (depending on their disposition…). Millwall themselves have had an average start to the season but have been relatively tight at the back. The Model forecasts a low-scoring draw (1-1; 13%).
On the pitch Bolton are defying expectations. Off the pitch they are meeting them. It seems as though they have avoided administration for now. But we all know that in football it will be HMRC who come knocking eventually, and they don’t cut deals. Players and fans though need to get on with business on the pitch. The Model forecasts Bolton will gain at least a point against visitors QPR this weekend (1-1; 13%).
The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Birmingham West Brom 0-1 17 23 47
Blackburn Aston Villa 1-1 13 37 34
Bolton QPR 1-1 13 40 32
Brentford Wigan 1-0 11 53 23
Bristol City Sheffield Utd 2-1 10 54 23
Hull Ipswich 1-0 11 50 25
Millwall Leeds 1-1 13 33 41
Norwich Middlesbrough 1-1 12 35 39
Preston Reading 1-0 12 54 21
Rotherham Derby 0-1 12 17 61
Sheffield Wed Stoke 1-0 13 46 26
Swansea Notts Forest 1-0 12 60 17