Proper football never actually stopped during the International Break, and it carries on again this coming weekend.
League One is proving to be the Model’s least favourite division, with a seriously abject 3 correct scores out of 84 matches (c.f. 13 scores from 74 international matches this week), and just 32 correct results. It turns out though that looking a little more deeply reveals that League One has just been strange this season. After 84 matches, there have been more away wins (29) than home wins (27). There’s been just four 1-0 home wins which means that had we followed the naive strategy of always picking a 1-0 home win, we’d have actually got fewer Lawro points (390 to the 410 we have).
Will the weirdness carry on? Well, the top two meet, Peterborough and Portsmouth, and a 1-1 draw is most likely with a probability of 13%, giving Barnsley the opportunity to jump into the promotion places with an expected 1-0 win at Coventry (14%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League One | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Fleetwood | Accrington | 1-0 | 13% | 51% | 23% |
| Coventry | Barnsley | 0-1 | 14% | 17% | 59% |
| Plymouth | Blackpool | 1-1 | 13% | 38% | 34% |
| Luton | Bristol R | 1-0 | 10% | 53% | 24% |
| Bradford | Charlton | 1-1 | 13% | 39% | 32% |
| Walsall | Doncaster | 1-1 | 13% | 38% | 34% |
| Rochdale | Gillingham | 1-0 | 10% | 53% | 24% |
| Wycombe | Oxford | 1-1 | 12% | 40% | 35% |
| Peterboro | Portsmouth | 1-1 | 13% | 38% | 35% |
| AFC W’don | Scunthorpe | 1-1 | 13% | 34% | 37% |
| Shrewsbury | Southend | 1-1 | 13% | 40% | 31% |
| Burton | Sunderland | 1-1 | 12% | 37% | 38% |
In League Two, where results have been much more “normal” this season (about 50% of games ending in home wins, 25% in a draw, 25% in an away win), we’ve fared somewhat better (9 scores, 38 results). Here, Lincoln are expected to re-establish their lead at the top with a 1-0 at Macclesfield (14%) while Newport struggle to a 1-1 draw at home with Yeovil (13%). At the bottom, Notts County may be about to finally record a first win of the season against Stevenage, with a 1-0 scoreline 10% likely, but a win having a 43% probability for Harry Kewell’s team.
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League Two | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Carlisle | Tranmere | 1-0 | 11% | 43% | 31% |
| Cheltenham | Crewe | 2-1 | 9% | 44% | 32% |
| Colchester | Cambridge | 1-0 | 14% | 44% | 27% |
| Crawley | Morecambe | 1-0 | 13% | 46% | 26% |
| Grimsby | Oldham | 0-0 | 14% | 27% | 42% |
| Macclesfield | Lincoln | 0-1 | 14% | 26% | 45% |
| Mansfield | Exeter | 1-1 | 13% | 39% | 33% |
| MK Dons | Forest Green | 1-0 | 12% | 57% | 20% |
| Newport Co | Yeovil | 1-1 | 13% | 40% | 33% |
| Notts Co | Stevenage | 1-0 | 10% | 43% | 31% |
| Port Vale | N’hampton | 1-1 | 13% | 36% | 36% |
| Swindon | Bury | 1-1 | 12% | 39% | 34% |