Derby County beat Manchester Utd in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday night, after officially the best sequence of 15 penalty kicks in history, and then Phil Jones. Back down to earth this weekend as they travel to Bolton. The Model forecasts them to edge it, with the most likely score 0-1 (14%).
After 9 rounds of matches, just 2 points separate the top 6 in the championship, and only 4 points separate the whole top half of the table. As ever, if you want to see competitive high quality football, the Championship is the place to look. One standout fixture is the all-Yorkshire clash on Friday night. Leeds have experience a dip in form, and so the Model forecasts a Sheffield Wednesday win, 1-0 (10%).
The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Bristol City Aston Villa 1-1 13 41 32
Sheffield Wed Leeds 1-0 10 45 30
Birmingham Ipswich 0-0 14 31 36
Blackburn Notts Forest 1-0 15 47 24
Bolton Derby 0-1 14 21 52
Brentford Reading 1-0 11 61 17
Hull Middlesbrough 1-1 12 36 38
Millwall Sheff Utd 1-1 13 36 36
Norwich Wigan 1-1 12 40 34
Preston West Brom 0-1 12 29 43
Rotherham Stoke 0-1 14 21 52
Swansea QPR 1-0 16 59 16