Don’t say we’re just geeks sat in a darkened room somewhere. No, this weekend we’re off out and about, and we’ll be at The County Ground in Swindon to watch the clash between Swindon Town and Oldham Athletic – a game which in 1993 took place in the fledgling Premier League. Both teams have blown hot and cold this season, but by and large there’s been goals. Indeed Oldham have managed to score three goals or more in successive games for only the second time in ten years, while Swindon also hit three last week at the until-then impressive Yeovil Town. The Model sees three goals, and sees Oldham shading it 2-1 (9%). The low percentage reflects an evenly balanced tie.
In League One, a binary set of forecasts has Sunderland to carry on their steady start with a 1-0 win at Coventry (12%), leaders Peterborough to extend their lead at the top by disposing of Blackpool 1-0 at home (12%) while second place Portsmouth are held 1-1 at Rochdale (13%). At the other end of the table there’s a 40% chance that Plymouth’s sorry start to the season will finally see a win at the tenth attempt as they face Doncaster.
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League One | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| AFC Wimbledon | Oxford | 1-1 | 13% | 39% | 32% |
| Bradford | Bristol R | 1-0 | 11% | 47% | 28% |
| Burton | Scunthorpe | 1-1 | 12% | 39% | 34% |
| Coventry | Sunderland | 0-1 | 12% | 23% | 53% |
| Fleetwood | Barnsley | 0-1 | 12% | 29% | 44% |
| Luton | Charlton | 1-0 | 12% | 44% | 29% |
| Peterboro | Blackpool | 1-0 | 12% | 50% | 24% |
| Plymouth | Doncaster | 1-1 | 13% | 40% | 32% |
| Rochdale | Portsmouth | 1-1 | 13% | 32% | 41% |
| Shrewsbury | Gillingham | 1-0 | 18% | 54% | 18% |
| Walsall | Accrington | 1-1 | 13% | 32% | 40% |
| Wycombe | Southend | 1-1 | 12% | 38% | 37% |
In other League Two clashes, leaders Lincoln seem to have a relatively easy task at struggling Cheltenham. Macclesfield’s clash with Forest Green is sufficiently intriguing that Sky Sports Football League Guru David Prutton has weighed in with a forecast: like the Model, he sees winless Macclesfield defeating unbeaten Forest Green 1-0 at the Moss Rose.
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League Two | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Carlisle | Stevenage | 1-0 | 13% | 46% | 26% |
| Cheltenham | Lincoln | 0-1 | 13% | 29% | 43% |
| Colchester | Bury | 1-0 | 16% | 44% | 26% |
| Crawley | Yeovil | 1-0 | 10% | 42% | 32% |
| Grimsby | Morecambe | 0-0 | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Macclesfield | Forest Green | 1-0 | 11% | 45% | 29% |
| Mansfield | Northampton | 1-0 | 14% | 52% | 22% |
| MK Dons | Tranmere | 0-0 | 14% | 37% | 32% |
| Newport Co | Cambridge U | 1-1 | 13% | 40% | 31% |
| Notts Co | Crewe | 2-1 | 10% | 62% | 18% |
| Port Vale | Exeter | 0-1 | 14% | 28% | 43% |
| Swindon | Oldham | 1-2 | 9% | 34% | 43% |