The second international break is upon us, with attention focussed on the behind closed doors match England will play against Croatia on Friday evening. If our forecast is to be believed, all those fans kept from parting with money may be relieved; a drab goalless draw appears to be the most likely score (16%).
As this post is being written, due to a bug with the dataset, the model hasn’t fully been re-estimated, and the international matches have begun for this set of dates, with Italy facing the Ukraine. Italy are expected to win 1-0 (19%). The Indonesia match is a backcast, as it occurred earlier today, and Indonesia won 3-0…
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| 10th October | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Albania | Jordan | 1-0 | 23% | 40% | 31% |
| Indonesia | Myanmar | 1-0 | 7% | 45% | 26% |
| Italy | Ukraine | 1-0 | 19% | 45% | 27% |
Considering Thursday evening, France will comfortably beat Iceland (84% chance of a France win), Scotland should win in Israel (1-0, 10%), and Spain ought to win 1-0 in the Welsh valleys (16%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| 11th October | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Faroes | Azerbaijan | 0-1 | 13% | 29% | 41% |
| France | Iceland | 2-0 | 12% | 84% | 5% |
| Iraq | Argentina | 0-2 | 16% | 17% | 59% |
| Israel | Scotland | 0-1 | 10% | 18% | 57% |
| Kosovo | Malta | 1-0 | 22% | 80% | 7% |
| Lithuania | Romania | 0-1 | 23% | 13% | 67% |
| Montenegro | Serbia | 0-1 | 12% | 25% | 47% |
| Poland | Portugal | 1-1 | 13% | 33% | 37% |
| Russia | Sweden | 1-0 | 9% | 54% | 20% |
| Turkey | Bosnia-Hz. | 1-0 | 12% | 43% | 28% |
| Wales | Spain | 0-1 | 16% | 16% | 61% |
On Friday, Croatia and England will draw (15%), Belgium will beat Switzerland 1-0 (13%), and the USA will draw with Colombia (1-1, 13%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| 12th October | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Austria | N Ireland | 1-0 | 19% | 70% | 11% |
| Belarus | Luxembourg | 2-0 | 15% | 53% | 21% |
| Belgium | Switzerland | 1-0 | 13% | 70% | 11% |
| Croatia | England | 0-0 | 15% | 39% | 32% |
| Estonia | Finland | 0-0 | 21% | 34% | 36% |
| Greece | Hungary | 1-0 | 16% | 67% | 13% |
| Japan | Panama | 2-0 | 12% | 66% | 13% |
| Mexico | Costa Rica | 1-0 | 16% | 70% | 11% |
| Moldova | San Marino | 2-0 | 27% | 83% | 6% |
| Qatar | Ecuador | 0-1 | 13% | 30% | 41% |
| Saudi Arabia | Brazil | 0-3 | 13% | 11% | 70% |
| South Korea | Uruguay | 0-1 | 16% | 20% | 54% |
| USA | Colombia | 1-1 | 13% | 37% | 33% |
On Saturday, the two most populous countries on the planet do battle, and China is expected to comfortably win 5-1 (6%). One of Europe’s grudge matches takes place too, the Dutch expected to hold the Germans in the Netherlands 1-1 (12%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| 13th October | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Armenia | Gibraltar | 3-0 | 17% | 73% | 10% |
| Bulgaria | Cyprus | 1-0 | 13% | 77% | 8% |
| China | India | 5-1 | 6% | 66% | 13% |
| Georgia | Andorra | 2-0 | 22% | 84% | 5% |
| Holland | Germany | 1-1 | 12% | 39% | 31% |
| Ireland | Denmark | 0-0 | 15% | 31% | 39% |
| Latvia | Kazakhstan | 0-1 | 10% | 27% | 44% |
| Macedonia | Liechtenstein | 2-0 | 20% | 83% | 6% |
| Myanmar | Bolivia | 1-2 | 9% | 29% | 42% |
| Norway | Slovenia | 1-0 | 15% | 56% | 19% |
| Peru | Chile | 1-0 | 11% | 46% | 26% |
| Slovakia | Czech Rep | 1-0 | 11% | 47% | 25% |
On Sunday, Poland are expected to upset the Italians with a 1-0 win (11%), and the match-up of international pariah states will see Russia beat Turkey 2-1 (9%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| 14th October | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Azerbaijan | Malta | 1-0 | 25% | 72% | 10% |
| Faroe Islands | Kosovo | 0-1 | 11% | 19% | 56% |
| Israel | Albania | 1-1 | 13% | 34% | 36% |
| Lithuania | Montenegro | 0-1 | 21% | 22% | 51% |
| Poland | Italy | 1-0 | 11% | 46% | 26% |
| Romania | Serbia | 1-0 | 16% | 48% | 24% |
| Russia | Turkey | 2-1 | 9% | 56% | 18% |
| Scotland | Portugal | 0-1 | 15% | 22% | 51% |
On Monday, Spain are expected to deal with the threat of Gareth Southgate’s England 1-0 (16%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| 15th October | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Belarus | Moldova | 1-0 | 21% | 74% | 9% |
| Bosnia-Hz. | N Ireland | 1-0 | 19% | 64% | 14% |
| Croatia | Jordan | 2-0 | 20% | 80% | 7% |
| Estonia | Hungary | 1-0 | 10% | 52% | 21% |
| Finland | Greece | 1-0 | 18% | 41% | 29% |
| Iceland | Switzerland | 0-1 | 10% | 22% | 50% |
| Kuwait | Australia | 0-1 | 14% | 22% | 50% |
| Luxembourg | San Marino | 2-0 | 26% | 87% | 4% |
| Saudi Arabia | Iraq | 1-0 | 13% | 52% | 21% |
| Spain | England | 1-0 | 16% | 60% | 16% |
On Monday, Brazil are strong favourites to beat Argentina (1-0 17%), and Ireland should expect to beat Wales by the same scoreline (1-0, 17%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| 16th October | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Armenia | Macedonia | 1-1 | 12% | 34% | 37% |
| Belgium | Holland | 2-1 | 9% | 68% | 12% |
| Brazil | Argentina | 1-0 | 17% | 74% | 9% |
| China | Syria | 1-0 | 14% | 46% | 26% |
| Colombia | Costa Rica | 1-0 | 15% | 72% | 10% |
| Denmark | Austria | 1-0 | 16% | 48% | 24% |
| France | Germany | 1-0 | 10% | 66% | 13% |
| Gibraltar | Liechtenstein | 1-0 | 16% | 59% | 17% |
| Indonesia | Hong Kong | 1-0 | 28% | 56% | 19% |
| Iran | Bolivia | 1-0 | 23% | 73% | 10% |
| Ireland | Wales | 1-0 | 17% | 44% | 27% |
| Japan | Uruguay | 0-1 | 10% | 22% | 51% |
| Kazakhstan | Andorra | 2-0 | 22% | 78% | 7% |
| Latvia | Georgia | 0-1 | 11% | 17% | 59% |
| Norway | Bulgaria | 1-0 | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Oman | Ecuador | 0-2 | 10% | 23% | 49% |
| Slovenia | Cyprus | 1-0 | 19% | 67% | 12% |
| South Korea | Panama | 1-0 | 17% | 63% | 15% |
| Sweden | Slovakia | 1-0 | 15% | 54% | 20% |
| UAE | Venezuela | 1-1 | 13% | 33% | 37% |
| Ukraine | Czech Rep | 1-0 | 18% | 65% | 14% |
| Uzbekistan | Qatar | 1-0 | 17% | 48% | 24% |
An end to the international break in the Americas should see a couple of home wins, Mexico over Chile and the US over Peru.
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| 17th October | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Mexico | Chile | 1-0 | 14% | 53% | 21% |
| USA | Peru | 1-0 | 14% | 47% | 24% |