Mourinho returns to Chelsea tomorrow with his reputation beleaguered. He is no doubt a great manager, and one of the Premier League era’s greats. But does the generally compact and cautious style of football he demands from his players really stand a chance against the explosiveness of Klopp and Guardiola, in a league where the degree of competitive balance is generally shrinking year-on-year. For what it’s worth, the Model forecasts a 1-0 win to Chelsea against Utd.
When the Model sees Southampton it goes a little bit haywire. All complex statistical models have a little personality, and the odd bug or several, and we think Southampton brings the worst/best out in the Scorecasting Model. This week the Model forecasts a scoreline of 4-3 in the match between Bournemouth and Southampton. Despite this being the most likely scoreline consistent with the most likely result (a win to Bournemouth), that scoreline overall has just a 2% chance of actually occurring according to the Model. Hmm…
The rest of our Premier League forecasts are in the the table below:
- The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
- The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
Arsenal | Leicester | 1-0 | 6 | 54 | 21 |
Bournemouth | Southampton | 4-3 | 2 | 48 | 25 |
Cardiff | Fulham | 0-0 | 18 | 34 | 37 |
Chelsea | Manchester Utd | 1-0 | 35 | 53 | 21 |
Everton | Crystal Palace | 1-0 | 13 | 46 | 26 |
Huddersfield | Liverpool | 0-2 | 25 | 23 | 50 |
Manchester City | Burnley | 2-0 | 27 | 64 | 14 |
Newcastle | Brighton | 1-0 | 21 | 42 | 29 |
West Ham | Spurs | 0-1 | 24 | 28 | 44 |
Wolves | Watford | 1-0 | 6 | 45 | 27 |
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