Tonight, Crewe take on Mansfield in another match rescheduled due to international commitments of the Mansfield players. Back when it was due to be played, we forecast Mansfield to win 1-0.
Updating the dataset to the present day yields a new forecast, namely a goalless draw.  See the table below; the expected number of goals for Crewe was sufficiently low (0.06), and Mansfield’s not sufficiently high (0.72) to generate a 1-1 draw prediction. Although Mansfield are favourites still, at 38% likely to win, our Fuzzy Conditional forecast is for a draw, since Crewe’s probability of winning is sufficiently close, at 33%.
Due to the delays caused by absent minded parenting, this is a nowcast, and indeed a nowcast that is already wrong, as at the time of writing, Mansfield are 2-0 up.

Most Likely Win (%)
Score Pr(%) P(H) P(A)
30-Oct Crewe Mansfield 0-0 31% 33% 38%
8-Sep Crewe Mansfield 0-1 11% 32% 42%