Some teams are yo-yo teams, going up and down the leagues regularly. Others tend to stick around a while. Rochdale, for example, are renowned for spending most of their existence in the league’s basement. In their entire existence, Rochdale have been promoted a mere four times, and relegated three times – less indeed than even the mighty Manchester United. At the other end of the scale, League One inhabitants Doncaster have been promoted 12 times, and relegated 13 times. Sitting in 8th place currently, they have more of an eye on promotion than relegation this season, it would seem (and our model gives them an 18% chance of promotion, 0% chance of relegation). A tough fixture at Charlton this weekend awaits, with a 1-0 defeat most likely (10%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
AFC W’don Shrewsbury 0-1 10% 30% 42%
Barnsley Southend 2-1 8% 52% 22%
Blackpool Bristol R 1-0 18% 49% 24%
Bradford Portsmouth 0-1 10% 26% 47%
Charlton Doncaster 1-0 10% 44% 28%
Coventry Accrington 1-0 7% 40% 31%
Gillingham Fleetwood 2-2 7% 33% 38%
Plymouth Sunderland 1-2 4% 29% 43%
Rochdale Luton 2-2 6% 35% 36%
Scunthorpe Oxford 4-1 5% 39% 32%
Walsall Burton 2-1 7% 40% 32%
Wycombe Peterboro 1-1 11% 33% 38%

The two most exciting teams to follow in football league history are in League Two: Notts County and Grimsby Town have both been promoted or relegated 29 times in their histories. Both look more likely to be fighting off relegation than challenging for promotion this season, and this weekend’s fixtures look set to help neither team much; Grimsby to lose 1-0 at Cambridge (9%), and Notts County to lose 2-1 at Port Vale (3%).

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge Grimsby 1-0 9% 41% 30%
Carlisle Newport 2-0 12% 42% 29%
Cheltenham Mansfield 0-1 12% 25% 47%
Colchester Swindon 1-0 8% 49% 24%
Crawley MK Dons 0-1 13% 30% 42%
Lincoln Forest Green 2-0 14% 45% 27%
Macclesfield Bury 0-1 15% 27% 45%
Morecambe Yeovil 0-1 13% 28% 44%
N’hampton Crewe 1-0 2% 40% 31%
Port Vale Notts Co 2-1 3% 48% 25%
Stevenage Oldham 0-0 22% 38% 33%
Tranmere Exeter 1-1 11% 38% 33%