The FA Cup First Round has begun already. The BBC has already shown the first match this Friday evening, and it turns out that after I’ve wrestled with the model for a good hour or more, we would have had a proper score had we got the forecasts done in time. As it is, it’s a “backcast”, but a good one at that – a 1-0 win for AFC Wimbledon.
The ticket in the featured pic is my ticket for Monday night’s game in deepest rugby union country, when Hampton and Richmond Borough take on Oldham. It seems likely to be another 1-0 win for the visiting team (33%).
The highest scoring game looks set to be at Chorley, where the hosts will share 10 goals with their visitors, League One Doncaster Rovers. Unfortunately, the hosts are expected to only score two of those ten (2%)…
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
| Haringey B | AFC Wimbledon | 0-1 | 36% | 17% | 61% |
| Accrington | Colchester | 1-0 | 23% | 56% | 20% |
| Aldershot | Bradford | 1-0 | 0% | 48% | 26% |
| Barnsley | Notts Co | 1-0 | 3% | 66% | 14% |
| Bromley | Peterborough | 0-1 | 31% | 26% | 48% |
| Bury | Dover | 1-0 | 4% | 57% | 20% |
| Chesterfield | Billericay | 0-1 | 12% | 33% | 40% |
| Crewe | Carlisle | 1-0 | 2% | 41% | 32% |
| Ebbsfleet | Cheltenham | 1-0 | 1% | 49% | 25% |
| Exeter | Blackpool | 0-1 | 14% | 35% | 37% |
| Gillingham | Hartlepool | 1-0 | 5% | 48% | 26% |
| Grimsby | MK Dons | 0-1 | 6% | 27% | 46% |
| Lincoln | Northampton | 1-0 | 18% | 50% | 25% |
| Luton | Wycombe | 1-0 | 7% | 53% | 22% |
| Maidenhead | Portsmouth | 0-1 | 18% | 18% | 59% |
| Maidstone | Macclesfield | 1-0 | 0% | 41% | 31% |
| Met. Police | Newport Co | 0-1 | 6% | 17% | 60% |
| Morecambe | Halifax | 1-0 | 4% | 41% | 32% |
| Oxford | Forest Green | 1-0 | 8% | 52% | 23% |
| Plymouth | Stevenage | 1-0 | 1% | 49% | 25% |
| Rochdale | Gateshead | 1-0 | 28% | 57% | 20% |
| Scunthorpe | Burton | 1-0 | 2% | 36% | 36% |
| Southend | Crawley | 1-0 | 6% | 58% | 19% |
| Southport | Boreham W | 0-1 | 14% | 21% | 54% |
| Sutton Utd | Slough | 2-0 | 10% | 56% | 20% |
| Swindon | York | 1-0 | 5% | 61% | 17% |
| Torquay | Woking | 1-0 | 9% | 43% | 30% |
| Tranmere | Oxford C | 1-0 | 12% | 64% | 16% |
| Walsall | Coventry | 1-0 | 19% | 40% | 32% |
| Yeovil | Stockport | 1-0 | 17% | 50% | 25% |
| Alfreton | Fleetwood | 0-1 | 16% | 19% | 58% |
| Barnet | Bristol R | 0-1 | 16% | 32% | 40% |
| Chorley | Doncaster | 2-8 | 2% | 30% | 43% |
| Guiseley | Cambridge U | 0-1 | 10% | 26% | 47% |
| Hitchin | Solihull M | 0-1 | 4% | 16% | 62% |
| Mansfield | Charlton | 1-0 | 11% | 37% | 36% |
| Port Vale | Sunderland | 0-1 | 7% | 23% | 52% |
| Shrewsbury | Salford | 1-0 | 21% | 42% | 31% |
| Weston S-M. | Wrexham | 0-1 | 1% | 18% | 59% |
| Hampton and R | Oldham | 0-1 | 33% | 34% | 39% |