A rarity this evening: a Friday night match outside the Premier League or Championship. A match between the less-mighty-than-they-used-to-be Coventry City, and the club-in-the-wrong-league Peterborough United (at least according to one of those dated articles you can find if you can actually find BBC Sport’s lower league coverage these days. And even when you get there you find half of the stories are about the Championship anyway).
If Peterborough do as expected and win 1-0 (20%), that winning goal will be merely the 173,047th goal in the third tier of professional English league football, ever.
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League One | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| AFC W | Southend | 0-1 | 19% | 29% | 42% |
| Barnsley | Doncaster | 1-0 | 10% | 50% | 23% |
| Blackpool | Burton | 1-0 | 9% | 58% | 18% |
| Bradford | Oxford | 1-2 | 6% | 29% | 42% |
| Charlton | Bristol R | 1-0 | 13% | 65% | 14% |
| Coventry | Peterboro | 0-1 | 20% | 20% | 54% |
| Gillingham | Luton | 1-2 | 8% | 31% | 40% |
| Plymouth | Fleetwood | 0-0 | 14% | 33% | 38% |
| Rochdale | Accrington | 1-1 | 13% | 37% | 34% |
| Scunthorpe | Portsmouth | 1-1 | 11% | 32% | 39% |
| Walsall | Sunderland | 0-1 | 12% | 28% | 44% |
| Wycombe | Shrewsbury | 0-1 | 8% | 26% | 47% |
In League Two, or the Fourth Division, things trundle on as the halfway point of the season nears. Reflecting that a fourth division was only created in 1959, the first goal on Saturday in League Two will be merely the 84,799th goal ever at this level. Who will get it? Perhaps Bury? Carlisle? Cheltenham or Newport? Colchester? Crawley? Crewe? Lincoln? Yeovil? Morecambe? Old-stagers Notts County? Swindon? Or MK Dons? These are the only teams The Models thinks will score this weekend…
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League Two | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Cambridge | Bury | 0-1 | 14% | 18% | 58% |
| Carlisle | F Green | 1-0 | 14% | 59% | 18% |
| Cheltenham | Newport | 1-1 | 12% | 37% | 34% |
| Colchester | Exeter | 1-0 | 11% | 41% | 31% |
| Crawley | Crewe | 1-1 | 11% | 36% | 35% |
| Lincoln | Mansfield | 1-0 | 19% | 55% | 20% |
| Macc | Yeovil | 0-1 | 16% | 29% | 42% |
| M’cambe | Notts Co | 2-1 | 4% | 41% | 31% |
| N’hampton | Grimsby | 0-0 | 23% | 38% | 33% |
| Port Vale | Swindon | 0-1 | 21% | 29% | 42% |
| Stevenage | MK Dons | 0-1 | 18% | 30% | 42% |
| Tranmere | Oldham | 0-0 | 16% | 38% | 33% |