For the 6th round of the Champions League we published two sets of forecasts:
Based on just 16 matches we can provide a rough evaluation of these two methods.
For the most likely result of matches, the Scorecasting Model forecast 7 correct. Foulley’s model however had the most likely result agreeing with the actual outcome in 8 matches.
For the most likely scoreline, the Model got one correct. However, Foulley’s model got 4 correct scorelines!
If we just take the scoreline forecast of each model as a single point forecast, and then award 40 points for a correct scoreline and 10 points for a correct result only, then the Model would score 100 points from the 16 matches. On the other hand, Foulley’s model scores 220 points.
Foulley’s forecasts for past Champions League rounds are also published here.