Is a slip up in store for League One leaders Portsmouth? The 2008 FA Cup winners have fallen on tough times in recent years, but are slowly making their way back up the leagues, and currently stand a handsome six points clear at the top of League One. But they face a tough (and long) trip to Barnsley tomorrow, and the Model thinks they won’t head back down the M1 particularly happy after a 1-0 defeat (17%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Barnsley Portsmouth 1-0 17% 42% 30%
Bradford Walsall 0-1 13% 30% 41%
Charlton AFC W 1-0 14% 42% 29%
Coventry Luton 0-1 11% 19% 57%
Doncaster Scunthorpe 2-1 6% 65% 14%
Fleetwood Burton 2-1 10% 52% 22%
Gillingham Wycombe 2-1 9% 50% 23%
Oxford Blackpool 0-0 22% 34% 37%
Rochdale Plymouth 2-1 7% 52% 22%
Shrewsbury Peterboro 1-1 12% 36% 35%
Southend Accrington 0-1 13% 26% 46%
Sunderland Bristol R 1-0 18% 65% 14%

In League Two there’s a (Greater) Manchester Derby, as 4th placed Bury travel to 12th placed Oldham. The Model seems to think Oldham’s improved recent form will be a match for Bury’s indifferent recent away form, predicting a 1-0 win for the Latics (9%). At the top, MK Dons may struggle in South Wales, with the Model predicting a 1-0 defeat at Newport (7%), while second-placed Lincoln look set to capitalise with a 2-0 win at home over Morecambe (13%).

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge Yeovil 1-1 8% 36% 35%
Carlisle Colchester 1-1 11% 37% 34%
Exeter Crewe 1-0 20% 53% 21%
FGR Mansfield 0-0 23% 36% 35%
Grimsby Swindon 1-0 15% 51% 23%
Lincoln Morecambe 2-0 13% 74% 9%
Macclesfield Crawley 1-1 13% 37% 34%
Newport MK Dons 1-0 7% 46% 26%
N’hampton Stevenage 1-0 6% 48% 25%
Notts Co Tranmere 0-1 12% 18% 58%
Oldham Bury 1-0 9% 46% 26%
Port Vale Cheltenham 1-1 12% 38% 33%