Is a slip up in store for League One leaders Portsmouth? The 2008 FA Cup winners have fallen on tough times in recent years, but are slowly making their way back up the leagues, and currently stand a handsome six points clear at the top of League One. But they face a tough (and long) trip to Barnsley tomorrow, and the Model thinks they won’t head back down the M1 particularly happy after a 1-0 defeat (17%).
Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
League One | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Barnsley | Portsmouth | 1-0 | 17% | 42% | 30% |
Bradford | Walsall | 0-1 | 13% | 30% | 41% |
Charlton | AFC W | 1-0 | 14% | 42% | 29% |
Coventry | Luton | 0-1 | 11% | 19% | 57% |
Doncaster | Scunthorpe | 2-1 | 6% | 65% | 14% |
Fleetwood | Burton | 2-1 | 10% | 52% | 22% |
Gillingham | Wycombe | 2-1 | 9% | 50% | 23% |
Oxford | Blackpool | 0-0 | 22% | 34% | 37% |
Rochdale | Plymouth | 2-1 | 7% | 52% | 22% |
Shrewsbury | Peterboro | 1-1 | 12% | 36% | 35% |
Southend | Accrington | 0-1 | 13% | 26% | 46% |
Sunderland | Bristol R | 1-0 | 18% | 65% | 14% |
In League Two there’s a (Greater) Manchester Derby, as 4th placed Bury travel to 12th placed Oldham. The Model seems to think Oldham’s improved recent form will be a match for Bury’s indifferent recent away form, predicting a 1-0 win for the Latics (9%). At the top, MK Dons may struggle in South Wales, with the Model predicting a 1-0 defeat at Newport (7%), while second-placed Lincoln look set to capitalise with a 2-0 win at home over Morecambe (13%).
Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
League Two | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Cambridge | Yeovil | 1-1 | 8% | 36% | 35% |
Carlisle | Colchester | 1-1 | 11% | 37% | 34% |
Exeter | Crewe | 1-0 | 20% | 53% | 21% |
FGR | Mansfield | 0-0 | 23% | 36% | 35% |
Grimsby | Swindon | 1-0 | 15% | 51% | 23% |
Lincoln | Morecambe | 2-0 | 13% | 74% | 9% |
Macclesfield | Crawley | 1-1 | 13% | 37% | 34% |
Newport | MK Dons | 1-0 | 7% | 46% | 26% |
N’hampton | Stevenage | 1-0 | 6% | 48% | 25% |
Notts Co | Tranmere | 0-1 | 12% | 18% | 58% |
Oldham | Bury | 1-0 | 9% | 46% | 26% |
Port Vale | Cheltenham | 1-1 | 12% | 38% | 33% |