Premier League, R17 (15-16 Dec)

Liverpool have only been closer to winning the Premier League than they are now at one other time in the 21st Century (arguably): right before Gerrard’s slip. Similarly, have they gone into a game against Man Utd this century being as strong favourites as they are this weekend? The Model forecasts Liverpool have a 52% chance of beating Utd, with a scoreline of 1-0 (15%).
Spurs are not out of the title race yet, especially given their home/Wembley form. They take on struggling Burnley this weekend, no objective observer can surely look past a Spurs win. The Model certainly doesn’t, giving Burnley a (generous) 14% chance of victory, and a forecast scoreline of 2-0 (13%) to Spurs.
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 17 of the Premier League:

• The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
• The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw