We have updated the final league table forecasts (below) using all the information from matches before today (19th December).
These can be compared against the Model’s previous forecasts from before a ball was kicked this season, giving an idea of which teams are performing above/below expectations. [See also here for full versions of previous end of season forecasts made in August and October]
Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs:
English Premier League, 2018/19
Most likely pos. | ||||||
Aug | Oct | Dec | Title % | CL % | Rel % | |
1 | 1 | 1 | Man City | 83.8 | 100 | 0 |
2 | 2 | 2 | Liverpool | 16 | 99.8 | 0 |
3 | 4 | 3 | Tottenham | 0.2 | 89.8 | 0 |
6 | 3 | 4 | Chelsea | 0 | 67.2 | 0 |
6 | 6 | 5 | Arsenal | 0 | 22.4 | 0 |
2 | 5 | 6 | Man Utd | 0 | 20.6 | 0 |
15 | 7 | 7 | B’mouth | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
7 | 10 | 7 | Leicester | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
18 | 11 | 8 | Brighton | 0 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
16 | 15 | 8 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
10 | 8 | 11 | Wolves | 0 | 0 | 2 |
12 | 12 | 11 | Everton | 0 | 0 | 1.3 |
17 | 9 | 12 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0.5 |
14 | 15 | 13 | C Palace | 0 | 0 | 2.3 |
14 | 18 | 15 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 8.9 |
11 | 16 | 16 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 13.8 |
16 | 17 | 17 | S’ton | 0 | 0 | 36.9 |
7 | 20 | 18 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 60.3 |
9 | 12 | 20 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 84.1 |
20 | 19 | 20 | Hudd | 0 | 0 | 88.7 |
EFL Championship
Most likely pos. | |||||||
Aug | Oct | Dec | Title % | AP % | Poffs % | Rel % | |
5 | 14 | 1 | Derby | 20.4 | 36.1 | 75.3 | 0 |
11 | 3 | 1 | Leeds | 24.7 | 42.6 | 79.7 | 0 |
19 | 15 | 2 | Norwich | 14.9 | 31.7 | 71.9 | 0 |
22 | 6 | 3 | Notts | 8.6 | 16.2 | 51 | 0.2 |
3 | 2 | 3 | W Brom | 7.4 | 16.3 | 49.6 | 0 |
2 | 6 | 5 | Swansea | 4.6 | 10.8 | 38.3 | 0.8 |
1 | 12 | 6 | Stoke | 2.7 | 5.5 | 27 | 1 |
3 | 8 | 7 | A Villa | 3.1 | 7 | 33.2 | 0.2 |
24 | 16 | 7 | Birm | 3.4 | 8.3 | 33.2 | 0.9 |
7 | 1 | 8 | Midd | 2.9 | 7.5 | 36.1 | 0.2 |
9 | 5 | 8 | Sheff Utd | 1.5 | 3.2 | 19 | 2 |
5 | 10 | 10 | Bristol C | 2.9 | 5.4 | 23.3 | 1.2 |
12 | 17 | 11 | Preston | 0.8 | 2.9 | 17.3 | 1.6 |
16 | 6 | 13 | Wigan | 0.3 | 1.1 | 7.1 | 5.7 |
14 | 13 | 14 | Blackb | 1.1 | 3.8 | 20 | 1.3 |
22 | 20 | 14 | QPR | 0.7 | 1.2 | 11.2 | 4.3 |
18 | 9 | 20 | Sheff Wed | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 21.7 |
15 | 18 | 21 | Millwall | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 26.3 |
20 | 23 | 21 | Reading | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 23.8 |
18 | 21 | 21 | Roth | 0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 24.7 |
8 | 4 | 22 | Brentford | 0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 23.6 |
15 | 22 | 22 | Hull | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 31.2 |
23 | 19 | 23 | Bolton | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 53.3 |
14 | 24 | 24 | Ipswich | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 76 |
League 1
Most likely pos. | ||||||
August | December | Team | Title % | AP % | Poffs % | Rel % |
6 | 1 | Portsmouth | 30.9 | 52.7 | 88.8 | 0 |
1 | 1 | Sunderland | 30 | 50.1 | 88.4 | 0 |
24 | 2 | Luton | 15.8 | 32 | 77.6 | 0 |
3 | 3 | Peterb | 7 | 16.5 | 58.9 | 0.2 |
8 | 4 | Blackpool | 3 | 8.3 | 41 | 0.9 |
2 | 5 | Barnsley | 1 | 5 | 34.9 | 0.6 |
3 | 7 | Charlton | 4.1 | 11.2 | 42.4 | 0.5 |
10 | 7 | Doncaster | 3.3 | 9.2 | 45.6 | 0.6 |
24 | 8 | Wycombe | 0.9 | 3.4 | 22.9 | 2.6 |
19 | 9 | Walsall | 2.3 | 5.8 | 31.9 | 1.2 |
17 | 10 | Fleet | 0.3 | 1.4 | 15.6 | 3.6 |
24 | 11 | Coventry | 0.6 | 2.1 | 19.3 | 3.4 |
9 | 13 | Burton | 0.5 | 0.9 | 7.9 | 10.9 |
17 | 16 | Oxford | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 17.8 |
22 | 16 | Rochdale | 0.1 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 13.6 |
21 | 17 | Acc Stan | 0 | 0.2 | 5.4 | 14.9 |
3 | 18 | Scunth | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 26.6 |
11 | 18 | Southend | 0 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 18.5 |
9 | 20 | Plymouth | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 24.7 |
1 | 20 | Shrews | 0 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 24.5 |
19 | 21 | Gillingham | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 34 |
14 | 22 | Bradford | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 43.6 |
18 | 24 | AFC W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 73.6 |
12 | 24 | Bristol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83.7 |
League 2
Most likely pos. | ||||||
August | December | Team | Title % | AP % | Poffs % | Rel % |
3 | 1 | MK Dons | 56 | 84.7 | 96.6 | 0 |
15 | 2 | FGR | 6.1 | 29.4 | 62.8 | 0 |
6 | 2 | Lincoln | 15 | 44.7 | 78.6 | 0 |
10 | 3 | Colch | 2.4 | 17.6 | 48.2 | 0.1 |
5 | 3 | Mansfield | 4.8 | 23.3 | 55 | 0.2 |
9 | 4 | Carlisle | 2.1 | 13.7 | 40.2 | 0.6 |
21 | 4 | Tranmere | 4 | 18.5 | 49.5 | 0.2 |
4 | 6 | Northam | 1.8 | 8 | 30.3 | 0.8 |
9 | 7 | Exeter | 1.9 | 9.5 | 34.3 | 0.1 |
2 | 7 | Oldham Athletic | 1.5 | 11.7 | 38.3 | 0.4 |
1 | 10 | Bury | 1.6 | 11.5 | 37.9 | 0.5 |
14 | 12 | Newport | 0.8 | 8.3 | 27.7 | 0.7 |
12 | 13 | Stevenage | 1.2 | 7.4 | 29 | 0.6 |
10 | 15 | Swindon | 0.4 | 5.8 | 23.1 | 1.6 |
21 | 17 | Crawley | 0.1 | 0.9 | 7.6 | 5.8 |
24 | 18 | Crewe | 0.1 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.9 |
17 | 19 | Port Vale | 0.1 | 1.3 | 8.5 | 6.1 |
16 | 19 | Yeovil | 0 | 1.3 | 8.4 | 4.5 |
11 | 20 | Chelt | 0 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 12.6 |
24 | 20 | Grimsby | 0 | 0.7 | 5.9 | 7.1 |
19 | 23 | Camb | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 22.6 |
22 | 23 | Morec | 0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 27 |
5 | 23 | Notts Cty | 0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 31.5 |
21 | 24 | Maccles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70.1 |
Key (% likelihood of…):
- Title: winning the league title
- CL: qualifying for Champions League by finishing in the top 4.
- Rel: relegation by finishing in bottom 3/4
- AP: automatic promotion by finishing in positions 1-2/3
- Poffs: at least making the playoffs by finishing in top 6/7
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