We have updated the final league table forecasts (below) using all the information from matches before today (19th December).
These can be compared against the Model’s previous forecasts from before a ball was kicked this season, giving an idea of which teams are performing above/below expectations. [See also here for full versions of previous end of season forecasts made in August and October]
Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs:
English Premier League, 2018/19

Most likely pos.
Aug Oct Dec Title % CL % Rel %
1 1 1 Man City 83.8 100 0
2 2 2 Liverpool 16 99.8 0
3 4 3 Tottenham 0.2 89.8 0
6 3 4 Chelsea 0 67.2 0
6 6 5 Arsenal 0 22.4 0
2 5 6 Man Utd 0 20.6 0
15 7 7 B’mouth 0 0.1 0.2
7 10 7 Leicester 0 0 0.3
18 11 8 Brighton 0 0.1 0.4
16 15 8 West Ham 0 0 0.3
10 8 11 Wolves 0 0 2
12 12 11 Everton 0 0 1.3
17 9 12 Watford 0 0 0.5
14 15 13 C Palace 0 0 2.3
14 18 15 Newcastle 0 0 8.9
11 16 16 Burnley 0 0 13.8
16 17 17 S’ton 0 0 36.9
7 20 18 Cardiff 0 0 60.3
9 12 20 Fulham 0 0 84.1
20 19 20 Hudd 0 0 88.7

EFL Championship

Most likely pos.
Aug   Oct Dec Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
5 14 1 Derby 20.4 36.1 75.3 0
11 3 1 Leeds 24.7 42.6 79.7 0
19 15 2 Norwich 14.9 31.7 71.9 0
22 6 3 Notts 8.6 16.2 51 0.2
3 2 3 W Brom 7.4 16.3 49.6 0
2 6 5 Swansea 4.6 10.8 38.3 0.8
1 12 6 Stoke 2.7 5.5 27 1
3 8 7 A Villa 3.1 7 33.2 0.2
24 16 7 Birm 3.4 8.3 33.2 0.9
7 1 8 Midd 2.9 7.5 36.1 0.2
9 5 8 Sheff Utd 1.5 3.2 19 2
5 10 10 Bristol C 2.9 5.4 23.3 1.2
12 17 11 Preston 0.8 2.9 17.3 1.6
16 6 13 Wigan 0.3 1.1 7.1 5.7
14 13 14 Blackb 1.1 3.8 20 1.3
22 20 14 QPR 0.7 1.2 11.2 4.3
18 9 20 Sheff Wed 0 0 1.7 21.7
15 18 21 Millwall 0 0.1 1.5 26.3
20 23 21 Reading 0 0 0.8 23.8
18 21 21 Roth 0 0.1 1.1 24.7
8 4 22 Brentford 0 0.1 1.1 23.6
15 22 22 Hull 0 0 0.4 31.2
23 19 23 Bolton 0 0.1 0.1 53.3
14 24 24 Ipswich 0 0 0.1 76

League 1

Most likely pos.
August December Team Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
6 1 Portsmouth 30.9 52.7 88.8 0
1 1 Sunderland 30 50.1 88.4 0
24 2 Luton 15.8 32 77.6 0
3 3 Peterb 7 16.5 58.9 0.2
8 4 Blackpool 3 8.3 41 0.9
2 5 Barnsley 1 5 34.9 0.6
3 7 Charlton 4.1 11.2 42.4 0.5
10 7 Doncaster 3.3 9.2 45.6 0.6
24 8 Wycombe 0.9 3.4 22.9 2.6
19 9 Walsall 2.3 5.8 31.9 1.2
17 10 Fleet 0.3 1.4 15.6 3.6
24 11 Coventry 0.6 2.1 19.3 3.4
9 13 Burton 0.5 0.9 7.9 10.9
17 16 Oxford 0.1 0.2 3.1 17.8
22 16 Rochdale 0.1 0.5 5.4 13.6
21 17 Acc Stan 0 0.2 5.4 14.9
3 18 Scunth 0.1 0.1 1.5 26.6
11 18 Southend 0 0.2 2.9 18.5
9 20 Plymouth 0 0.1 1.5 24.7
1 20 Shrews 0 0.1 2.8 24.5
19 21 Gillingham 0 0 1.6 34
14 22 Bradford 0 0 0.6 43.6
18 24 AFC W 0 0 0 73.6
12 24 Bristol 0 0 0 83.7

League 2

Most likely pos.
August December Team Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
3 1 MK Dons 56 84.7 96.6 0
15 2 FGR 6.1 29.4 62.8 0
6 2 Lincoln 15 44.7 78.6 0
10 3 Colch 2.4 17.6 48.2 0.1
5 3 Mansfield 4.8 23.3 55 0.2
9 4 Carlisle 2.1 13.7 40.2 0.6
21 4 Tranmere 4 18.5 49.5 0.2
4 6 Northam 1.8 8 30.3 0.8
9 7 Exeter 1.9 9.5 34.3 0.1
2 7 Oldham Athletic 1.5 11.7 38.3 0.4
1 10 Bury 1.6 11.5 37.9 0.5
14 12 Newport 0.8 8.3 27.7 0.7
12 13 Stevenage 1.2 7.4 29 0.6
10 15 Swindon 0.4 5.8 23.1 1.6
21 17 Crawley 0.1 0.9 7.6 5.8
24 18 Crewe 0.1 0.6 8.7 6.9
17 19 Port Vale 0.1 1.3 8.5 6.1
16 19 Yeovil 0 1.3 8.4 4.5
11 20 Chelt 0 0.4 4.7 12.6
24 20 Grimsby 0 0.7 5.9 7.1
19 23 Camb 0.1 0.4 1.9 22.6
22 23 Morec 0 0.1 1.3 27
5 23 Notts Cty 0 0.2 1.5 31.5
21 24 Maccles 0 0 0 70.1

Key (% likelihood of…):

  • Title: winning the league title
  • CL: qualifying for Champions League by finishing in the top 4.
  • Rel: relegation by finishing in bottom 3/4
  • AP: automatic promotion by finishing in positions 1-2/3
  • Poffs: at least making the playoffs by finishing in top 6/7