It’s that time of the year, one of the dates you always look to when they release the fixtures in the middle of June or July – who are we playing on Boxing Day? It’s a little deflating when you find it’s Carlisle United away (with no disrespect due to Carlisle, it’s just not very near).
Most likely, many supporters in League One felt as deflated as most Oldham fans (well, those who have no beef with John Sheridan or Anthony Gerrard), as there are few obvious Christmas Crackers. Although Barnsley vs Peterborough is a good old fashioned play-off six pointer, Posh fans will hardly be relishing that trip up the A1. And The Model thinks their fans should better nurse hangovers than make the trip, as a 1-0 defeat is most likely (11%).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League One | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Accrington | Shrewsbury | 1-1 | 11% | 38% | 33% |
| AFC W | Plymouth | 1-0 | 11% | 57% | 18% |
| Barnsley | Peterboro | 1-0 | 14% | 45% | 27% |
| Burton | Wycombe | 2-1 | 10% | 40% | 31% |
| Coventry | Charlton | 1-2 | 9% | 30% | 41% |
| Fleetwood | Doncaster | 1-1 | 11% | 34% | 37% |
| Gillingham | Portsmouth | 1-2 | 10% | 28% | 43% |
| Oxford | Southend | 1-0 | 12% | 60% | 17% |
| Rochdale | Blackpool | 0-1 | 12% | 23% | 51% |
| Scunthorpe | Luton | 1-2 | 7% | 16% | 61% |
| Sunderland | Bradford | 3-0 | 8% | 46% | 26% |
| Walsall | Bristol R | 1-0 | 9% | 60% | 17% |
In League One, the Model thinks the aforementioned trip to Carlisle will be worthwhile for Oldham fans, as a 2-1 win is most likely (8%). The author would like to add he thinks this will not happen.
League Two is somewhat unusual in that the top two are not the teams that have impressed most relative to expectations. The top two expectations exceeders both have further opportunities to exceed expectations, as The Model has them both to lose 1-0 on the road (Forest Green at Newport (7%), Bury at Mansfield (11%)).
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| League Two | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Cambridge | Crawley | 1-0 | 12% | 43% | 29% |
| Carlisle | Oldham | 1-2 | 8% | 24% | 48% |
| Cheltenham | MK Dons | 1-1 | 6% | 33% | 38% |
| Colchester | Stevenage | 1-0 | 14% | 48% | 24% |
| Crewe | Lincoln | 0-1 | 13% | 15% | 63% |
| Exeter | Yeovil | 1-0 | 14% | 48% | 25% |
| Mansfield | Bury | 1-0 | 11% | 39% | 32% |
| Newport Co | F Green | 1-0 | 7% | 48% | 25% |
| N’hampton | Swindon | 1-0 | 15% | 47% | 25% |
| Notts Co | Macclesfield | 1-1 | 12% | 38% | 33% |
| Port Vale | Grimsby | 0-1 | 10% | 28% | 44% |
| Tranmere | Morecambe | 2-0 | 13% | 64% | 14% |