The Championship promotion picture is beginning to look more settled. Leeds and Norwich are respectively 14 and 11 points clear of 7th placed Birmingham. However, arguable teams as far down as 17th placed Preston have some hope of a stellar 2nd half of the season and making the playoffs.
Bolton Wanderers started the season well, but then fell away dramatically from late September onwards. They picked up a vital win in a classic “6-pointer” on Boxing Day at home to Rotherham. However, the Model does not give them much hope at home to Stoke this weekend, with a forecast scoreline of 0-1 (19%).
Ipswich have won just twice so far this season, despite changing manager in October. Paul Lambert must also be coming under pressure now, as the Tractor Boys look doomed to slip into the bottom half of the Football League. They travel up to Middlesbrough this weekend, but the Model only gives them a 16% chance of adding to their two victories.
The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Birmingham Brentford 1-0 11 49 24
Bolton Stoke 0-1 19 25 48
Bristol City Rotherham 1-0 16 53 21
Leeds Hull 1-0 11 54 20
Middlesbrough Ipswich 1-0 17 62 16
Millwall Notts Forest 0-1 10 31 40
Norwich Derby 1-0 10 48 24
Preston Aston Villa 1-1 12 33 38
QPR Reading 2-1 10 51 23
Sheff Utd Blackburn 1-0 12 49 24
Swansea Wigan 1-0 15 52 22
West Brom Sheffield Wed 3-1 8 61 17