Only ten days ago, Manchester City had according to our Model an 84% chance of retaining their title, making them heavy favourites, though down from the 92% chance the Model gave them before a ball was kicked this season.
Things have changed massively over the Christmas period. The feature image (also shown below) plots the Model’s simulation based probabilities of each team winning the Premier League as the season has progressed so far. This is up to date as of 28th December (i.e. before Spurs just lost this afternoon at home to Wolves). Liverpool have now overtaken Man City in the title reckoning, with their chances rising as high as 48%. The chances of Tottenham had increased to 33%, driven by their recent free-scoring form. Man City meanwhile have dropped down as far as 11%, with Arsenal at 4%.