Manchester Utd are back in the goals. Apparently the tactical tweak by Solskjaer has been simply to encourage width.┬áThe Scorecasting Model is fundamentally about goals rather than results, and so it should quickly adapt to the new Man Utd in its forecasts. In the New Year’s round of fixtures it predicts Utd to win away at Newcastle (47%), with 0-1 (14%) the most likely scoreline.
Manchester City v Liverpool: Even after this one there will be 17 games left to play, but if Liverpool win this one surely the title is theirs. As the figure below shows, they are already heavy favourites for the title according to the Model. This match is likely to be close, but the Model thinks City at home still have the edge, and forecasts 1-0 (11%).
IMG-20181230-WA0014
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 20 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Arsenal Fulham 3-1 8 63 15
Bournemouth Watford 1-1 9 38 33
Cardiff Spurs 0-2 12 21 53
Chelsea Southampton 2-0 11 64 14
Everton Leicester 2-1 9 43 28
Huddersfield Burnley 0-0 14 35 36
Manchester City Liverpool 1-0 11 43 29
Newcastle Manchester Utd 0-1 14 26 47
West Ham Brighton 1-0 11 42 30
Wolves Crystal Palace 1-0 14 45 27