Leagues One and Two carry on, for those teams focussing on the league. Three games in League One, and seven in League Two. Three 1-1 draws predicted in League One (13%, 12%, 13%), reflecting three tight games expected where in every case the home team (Charlton, Rochdale and Scunthorpe) are 36% likely to win, and the away team (Sunderland, Burton and Coventry) 35% likely.
Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
League One | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Charlton | Sunderland | 1-1 | 13% | 36% | 35% |
Rochdale | Burton | 1-1 | 12% | 36% | 35% |
Scunthorpe | Coventry | 1-1 | 13% | 36% | 35% |
Some tight games in League Two also. Can Macclesfield leapfrog Cambridge at the bottom, and escape the relegation zone? The Model thinks there’s about a 12% chance of that happening, assuming the outcomes in the two matches are independent of each other. Cambridge to draw 1-1 (13%) with Stevenage in an East of England derby, and Macclesfield to draw 0-0 (20%) with Swindon.
Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
League Two | Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Cambridge | Stevenage | 1-1 | 13% | 35% | 36% |
Carlisle | Mansfield | 1-1 | 13% | 37% | 34% |
Colchester | Notts Co | 2-0 | 16% | 59% | 18% |
Crawley | Cheltenham | 1-2 | 5% | 30% | 41% |
Macclesfield | Swindon | 0-0 | 20% | 33% | 38% |
Morecambe | Crewe | 0-0 | 14% | 35% | 37% |
Yeovil | Bury | 0-1 | 7% | 31% | 40% |