Who had this guy down as the new manager of Stoke City? Good luck to him. And some respect to the Stoke board for promoting from below, rather than trying a manager who had repeatedly “failed” before at this level or above. Stoke’s first game under new management is away at Brentford. And the Model only gives them a 30% chance of a win, with the most likely outcome a 1-0 (15%) defeat.
Tonight it is Leeds vs Derby. Enough said. The Model says that Derby are favourites, and the most likely scoreline will be 0-1 (9%). That’s good enough for me…
Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:
- The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
- The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
Leeds | Derby | 0-1 | 9 | 28 | 43 |
Birmingham | Middlesbrough | 0-1 | 16 | 28 | 43 |
Brentford | Stoke | 1-0 | 15 | 41 | 30 |
Bristol City | Bolton | 1-0 | 22 | 59 | 18 |
Hull | Sheffield Wed | 1-1 | 10 | 34 | 37 |
Ipswich | Rotherham | 0-0 | 19 | 38 | 33 |
Millwall | Blackburn | 1-0 | 15 | 45 | 27 |
Preston | Swansea | 0-1 | 9 | 26 | 47 |
Reading | Notts Forest | 0-1 | 17 | 29 | 42 |
Sheff Utd | QPR | 0-1 | 5 | 32 | 39 |
West Brom | Norwich | 2-1 | 9 | 62 | 16 |
Wigan | Aston Villa | 0-1 | 11 | 26 | 47 |