What neutral doesn’t want Liverpool to win the league? Compared to the massive wealth and resources available to Man City, surely Liverpool are the archetypal underdogs that we can all get behind (no tongue in cheek).
On Monday, Man City welcome Wolves to part of their estate. Despite Wolves having sunk Liverpool and Spurs in recent matches, the Model still gives City a 68% chance of 3 points, and a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (14%).
Liverpool play two days earlier, travelling to the South coast to face Brighton. Interestingly, the Model only just gives Liverpool the edge in this one, and suggests the most likely outcome is 0-0 (10%).
But… don’t forget about Spurs. They are still in the title race, but probably need a win at home to Manchester Utd this weekend. A month ago the Model probably would have given this one to Spurs comfortably, but now only gives them approximately a 50:50 chance of beating Utd, with the most likely scoreline 2-1 (8%):
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 22 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Brighton Liverpool 0-0 10 35 36
Burnley Fulham 1-0 11 62 16
Crystal Palace Watford 1-1 12 37 34
Cardiff Huddersfield 1-0 16 46 27
Chelsea Newcastle 1-0 19 68 13
Leicester Southampton 1-1 11 34 37
West Ham Arsenal 1-2 9 28 43
Everton Bournemouth 2-1 6 63 15
Spurs Manchester Utd 2-1 8 49 24
Manchester City Wolves 2-0 14 68 12