Now is the time to be making a move for promotion, although perhaps a bit too early to be making a push to get out of relegation trouble (fact-free assertion alert). Somehow with the latter, gravity seems to pull you back if you go too early. Are Bury moving themselves into pole position in League Two? After faltering last week, are Portsmouth faltering in League One?
Portsmouth head up the A34 to the Dreaming Spires this weekend, and the Model thinks they’ll get back on track with a 1-0 win (14%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
AFC Wim Barnsley 0-0 13% 36% 35%
Blackpool Shrewsbury 0-1 12% 32% 39%
Bradford Southend 1-0 9% 57% 18%
Bristol R Wycombe 1-0 20% 44% 28%
Charlton Accrington 1-0 11% 44% 28%
Doncaster Burton 2-1 10% 61% 16%
Gillingham Walsall 1-0 11% 60% 17%
Luton Peterboro 1-0 12% 61% 16%
Oxford Portsmouth 0-1 14% 17% 59%
Plymouth Coventry 1-0 12% 41% 31%
Rochdale Fleetwood 0-1 11% 30% 41%
Scunthorpe Sunderland 0-1 14% 24% 48%

This weekend, Bury go to fellow promotion chasers Forest Green in another test of their credentials after their barnstorming 4-3 win over MK Dons last weekend. Can they push on? The Model thinks perhaps not – a 1-1 draw is most likely (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge U Northampton 0-1 10% 27% 45%
Carlisle Cheltenham 2-1 9% 52% 22%
Colchester Mansfield 1-1 13% 35% 36%
Crawley Port Vale 1-0 13% 41% 31%
Forest Green Bury 1-1 9% 35% 36%
Lincoln Grimsby 2-1 10% 55% 20%
Macclesfield Oldham 1-2 9% 16% 62%
MK Dons Crewe 1-0 13% 54% 21%
Morecambe Stevenage 1-1 13% 36% 35%
Newport Co Exeter 2-1 5% 43% 29%
Tranmere Swindon 1-0 14% 48% 25%
Yeovil Notts Co 1-0 14% 54% 20%