The Premier League has been experiencing something of a lull recently, as football fans have been distracted by the cups and some sad news.
One advantage of going out of the cup early is that players can be given a rest. Liverpool had this benefit, having exited the FA Cup earlier in the 3rd Round and also not getting far in the League Cup. This would have had a positive impact on their chances of overcoming Leicester at home on Wednesday night, had Leicester not also been dumped out of the cup early. Nonetheless, The Model gives Liverpool a 69% chance of victory and forecasts a scoreline of 2-0 (16%).
Manchester Utd are invincible (in 2019 and the last bit of 2018). The Model forecasts this invincibility will last a little longer, with Utd given a 67% chance of extending their winning run at home to Burnley. The forecast scoreline is a comfortable 2-0 (11%) win.
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 24 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Arsenal Cardiff 2-0 10 69 13
Bournemouth Chelsea 1-2 9 23 51
Fulham Brighton 0-1 11 32 41
Huddersfield Everton 0-1 16 30 43
Manchester Utd Burnley 2-0 11 67 13
Wolves West Ham 1-0 13 50 24
Liverpool Leicester 2-0 16 69 12
Newcastle Manchester City 0-1 18 18 59
Southampton Crystal Palace 1-0 11 45 28
Spurs Watford 2-0 15 57 19